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Broncos at Raiders (-2.5): O/U 45.5
I think this is the perfect spot to back the Raiders to get their first win.
As someone who has three units on the Raiders Team Total Under 8.5, I am not mad about the 0-3 start, but admit, it won’t last long.
At 0-4, the Raiders can plan a vacation in January, so this is absolutely a max desperation spot at home.
Speaking of playing at home, the Raiders have won and covered in six-straight versus the Broncos at the crib (that’s slang for home).
Overall, Las Vegas is 8-1 ATS (88.8%) and 7-2 on the ML (77.7%) in the past nine matchups with Denver, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The graph below shows the past nine meetings and the Under is also 7-2 in that span (77.7%).
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While I backed Denver to beat San Francisco on Sunday Night Football, I cannot back them here. Going for three-straight wins is laughable for how this team has performed.
It hasn’t been Russell Wilson‘s fault, but most of the players around him along with the performance of first-year head coach Nathaniel Hackett.
Denver leads the league in penalties with 30, six more than the next team, plus the offense averages 14.3 points per game, second-to-last in the NFL, and nine sacks on Wilson is tied for sixth-most.
The Broncos have yet to score more than 16 points in a game yet and beat the Texans by seven and 49ers by one point. The receivers are dropping passes, running backs are fumbling and Wilson only has one turnover through this whole mess, which is about the only positive.
The Raiders are up to their normal shenanigans losing close games left and right. In the first three games, Las Vegas has lost by five, six and two points. This is the best spot of the season to back the Black and Silver.
Play them on the ML and risk 2 units at -140 odds to win 1.42 units.
I will playing them on the spread at -2.5 out to -3 as well.
Pick: Raiders ML (Risk 2u), Raiders -2.5 (0.5u)
More NFL Week 4 Picks
Thursday Night Football Pick: Bengals vs Dolphins (read here)
Monday Night Football Pick: Rams vs 49ers (read here)
Murray vs Mayfield Pick: Cardinals vs Panthers (read here)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
