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49ers (-6.5) at Panthers: O/U 39.5
The 49ers enter this contest off a big MNF win and were assisted by the NFL when they scheduled this game for a 4:05 PM ET kickoff.
With the West to East Coast travel, the West Coast teams are normally at a disadvantage, but that is negated here with this time slot.
Carolina has struggled all season and there isn’t much hope for Baker Mayfield and company against the NFL’s best defense.
The Panthers have the second-lowest completion percentage (54.7%), the eighth-fewest rushing yards (385) and per PFF, the 49ers defense ranks 3rd in EPA/pass allowed, while the Panthers offense ranks dead-last in EPA/pass.
In two of the Panthers three losses, they scored 16 points exactly and the other was a 24-point effort in a loss to the Browns. Obviously there was motivation there for Baker Mayfield in that outing, but what’s the motivation for him in this losing outing?
The 49ers held the Seahawks to 7 points, the Broncos to 11 points and the Rams to 9 points over the last three games after surrendering 19 points to the Bears in Week 1 (terrible weather).
Lastly, Matt Rhule is closer and closer to getting fired after every game. The only time I feel comfortable to back the Panthers is an underdog versus an NFC South opponent.
In Rhule’s last 14 games as a home underdog, Carolina is 4-9-1 ATS (30.7%) and 4-10 on the ML (28.5%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. In the last 18 games overall, Rhule is 3-15 ATS and on the ML (16.6%).
I can’t find any reasons to back Carolina besides a possible letdown spot for the 49ers, but I highly doubt it comes here, but possibly at Atlanta next week with look-ahead games on deck versus the Chiefs and at the Rams before a bye week.
I played the Panthers Team Total Under 16.5 at -120 odds and the 49ers on the spread at -6.5 and -110 odds.
Pick: 49ers -6.5 (1u), Panthers Team Total Under 16.5 (1u)
Falcons at Buccaneers (-10): O/U 46.5
Tom Brady is 10-0 (100%) and 9-1 ATS (90%) in his career versus the Falcons, counting the postseason, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
This spread opened at -8 and -8.5, but once Atlanta announced Kyle Pitts or Cordarrelle Patterson for Atlanta were out, the line moved to -10.
The only time Brady did not cover against Atlanta was his first-ever meeting versus the Falcons as a member of the Bucs. Tampa Bay was laying -6 and won by 4.
It’s also worth noting that the Bucs are on a two-game losing streak. When Brady has lost two-straight games on the ML, his teams have gone 11-4 ATS (73.3%) and 13-2 on the ML (86.6%) in the following game.
Brady is 7-1 ATS (87.5%) in the last eight games following two consecutive losses.
While I am on the spread happily, another way to attack this game is the Falcons Team Total of 17.5.
The previous meeting between the teams was a 30-17 win of the Bucs, which could very well be the score of this outing. Without Pitts and Patterson. The Falcons matchup is dependent on the ground game, which ranks fourth in rushing yards (672), but I am not confident Atlanta will find much, if any success on the ground.
While the Chiefs made offense look easy on Sunday Night Football versus the Bucs, life won’t be like that for Marcus Mariota on Sunday in Tampa Bay.
Atlanta has scored at least 20 points in every game this season and this is the ideal time to fade the trend of 20-plus outings. The Falcons needed 13 points in the fourth quarter against the Browns to reach 23 points last week and 10 points in the third quarter of the Falcons win over the Seahawks.
As long as Tampa Bay locks in the second-half and doesn’t go on cruise control, I like the chances Atlanta stays Under 17.5 points for -120 odds and the Bucs cover the -10 spread at -110 odds.
Double-digit favorites are 4-0 on the ML and 2-2 ATS this season, covering two-straight in Bills (-10) vs Titans and Packers (-10) vs Bears -- we were on both those games, so let’s make it three-straight double-digit covers.
Pick: Buccaneers -10 (1u), Falcons Team Total Under 17.5 (1u)
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Eagles (-5) at Cardinals: O/U 49.5
The Cardinals have lost and failed to cover in seven-straight home games dating back to last season. Now they host the NFL’s only undefeated team after a road win at Carolina.
Arizona is the lowest-scoring first half team in the NFL at 4.0 PPG and Philly ranks 1st in that same category with 23.0 PPG, while the Cardinals are 0-4 ATS in the 1H and the Eagles are 4-0 ATS in the 1H.
The Cardinals are the only team in the NFL without any first quarter points this season and the Eagles are the only team in the NFL that has yet to trail in the second-half of a game this year.
I think the Eagles can and will continue to get out to a fast start and be able to contain Kyler Murray and move the ball all over this unimpressive Cardinals defense. The Eagles have 10 rushing touchdowns this season (1st) and is a full force on the ground ranking fifth in yards (661).
The Cardinals defense has survived off forced fumbles (7) and fumble recoveries (2) this season but the Eagles have been efficient on offense. Jalen Hurts has thrown two interceptions through four games and the Eagles have not lost a fumble yet.
Philly is doing everything well, especially on defense where they average 6.5 combined sacks and turnovers forced per game, the most in the NFL.
The Cardinals are notoriously worse at home, so back the Eagles -5 at -110 odds to handle business in the desert.
A fun fact about home underdogs of +5 is that they are 1-7 ATS (12.5%) since 2018, losing and failing to cover in six-straight outing! The number is even worse for +5.5 home dogs.
The Saints -5 and -5.5 against the Seahawks also fall into this category and is something I would play for a smaller wager since New Orleans is coming off that London trip and teams normally have a bye week following the International games.
Pick: Eagles -5 (1u)
7-POINT TEASER (-140)
Buccaneers -3 at Falcons
49ers +0.5 at Panthers
We are 5-1 +3.9 units on teasers this year and if not for a Commanders 15-point loss to the Cowboys (we had +10), we would be 7-0 +7 units on teasers. Let’s roll with one this week, and in my opinion, this should be an easy one.
I won’t go into details because the details are above but these are the main factors in this teaser:
In Matt Rhule‘s last 14 games as a home underdog, Carolina is 4-9-1 ATS (30.7%) and 4-10 on the ML (28.5%). In the last 18 games overall, Rhule is 3-15 ATS and on the ML (16.6%).
The 49ers held the Seahawks to 7 points, the Broncos to 11 points and the Rams to 9 points over the last three games and got assistance from the NFL when this game was scheduled at 4:05 PM for the West Coast team coming East.
Double-digit favorites are 4-0 on the ML and 2-2 ATS this season, covering two-straight in Bills (-10) vs Titans and Packers (-10) vs Bears. When you tease the -10 favorite down 7 points, they are 4-0 ATS to the -3 line.
Brady is 10-0 on the ML and 9-1 ATS versus the Falcons in his career and coming off two-straight losses, where he is 11-4 ATS and 13-2 on the ML. Hard to back Atlanta on the road here without Pitts or Patterson, even at 4-0 ATS.
Pick: Buccaneers -3 and 49ers +0.5 (1u)
2 unit play: Ravens vs Bengals
Revenge spot on Sunday Night Football in Baltimore? Sign me the freak up!
The Bengals laid the wood on the Ravens last year, winning 41-17 in Baltimore during Week 7 and 41-21 in Cincy during Week 16, the day after Christmas.
The 41-17 loss in Baltimore was the only divisional game Lamar Jackson played last season because of injury, so he absolutely remembers that feeling. Josh Johnson started the second meeting versus Cincy amid the Ravens six-game losing streak to end the 2021 season.
Baltimore will be motivated at home on Sunday Night Football versus a division opponent who made the Super Bowl last year and beat them twice while they missed the postseason and Jackson remains without a contract.
My last and honestly, my favorite point, John Harbaugh is a monster at home on Primetime.
The Ravens have gone 18-2 on the ML (90%, +7.59 units) and 12-8 ATS (+2.91 units) as at home.
Harbaugh has gone 8-3 ATS (72.3%, +4.27 units) in the past 11 at home on Primetime and 10-1 on the ML (90.9%, +5.1 units) in that same span (since 2014).
Read here for the full breakdown and pick on Sunday Night Football
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