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Aaron Rodgers is 12-0 ATS and on the ML following a loss, Go Pack Go!

Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

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Jets at Packers (-7): O/U 45.5

As if things couldn’t get worse for the Packers, Green Bay drop a competitive game in London to the New York Giants. Now, they return back home and host the other New York squad (kind of) in chilly Green Bay.

The spread opened at Packers -9.5, which was too high, but now at -7, the value is on Green Bay.

The Jets have won two-straight games over the Steelers and Dolphins, two teams using backup quarterbacks. While New York is playing better than anyone expected, the last time the Jets won three-straight games was in 2019.

Coming off two-straight wins, the Jets are 2-6 on the ML (25%) dating back to 2016 and 3-4-1 ATS (42.8%).

Digging a little deeper, when New York is tagged as a road underdog coming off two-straight wins, the Jets are 1-7 on the ML (12.5%) and 2-5-1 ATS (28.5%), so not very profitable in that spot.

Over the last 12 games following a ML loss, the Packers are 12-0 ATS and on the ML (100%), per NBC’s Edge Finder. That goes all the way back to 2018 and includes the cover and win versus the Bears this season.

Packers coming off a loss

Packers coming off a loss

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While Green Bay looks like it could be in trouble, the defense only allows 303.4 total yards per game (5th), 249.5 yards per game at home (3rd) and 11th in points per game (19.2).

I don’t have much faith in Zach Wilson and the Jets offense at Green Bay. The Jets did score 24 and 40 points with Wilson under center, but that came against a T.J. Watt-less Steelers defense and a Dolphins team that gave up when rookie Skylar Thompson took over for injured Teddy Bridgewater.

Despite the Jets wins versus the Browns, Steelers and Dolphins, this is an ideal spot to fade New York.

Rodgers has played the Jets three times in his career and went 3-0 ATS and on the ML, winning by six, seven and nine points in 2018, 2014 and 2010.

I like Rodgers to make it a perfect 4-0 ATS and on the ML versus the Jets. I played Green Bay -7 (-115) and would prefer not to play past the -7.

The only concern in this game is Green Bay coming back from London. However, New Orleans covered versus Seattle the week after London and Minnesota pushed against Chicago, if you got the -7.

We will take a look at Rodgers Over 1.5 Pass TDs with a Packers ML Same Game Parlay when the odds come out.

Pick: Packers -7 (1u)

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.