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Teasing the Bucs/Steelers, Packers/Jets, Bengals/Saints and Colts/Jags

Ja'Marr Chase

Ja’Marr Chase

Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK

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7-Point Teaser (-140) DraftKings

Buccaneers -3 at Steelers

Packers -0.5 vs Jets

We will take two of the top teams in the NFC in this teaser and back two legends under center, Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady versus the Jets and Steelers.

For the Buccaneers, well the defense is forcing 5.6 sacks plus turnovers per game, the most in the league and that will be an issue versus Kenny Pickett and company. On the Steelers defensive side, they are still winless without T.J. Watt and have multiple starters out.

The Steelers defense has allowed the second-most plays of 20-plus yards (28) through five games and the Buccaneers offense is getting better by the week. Tampa Bay led Atlanta 21-0 in the fourth quarter before blowing a cover, so I will roll with the Bucs -2.5 in teasers and stay away from the -9.5 and -10, although I think Tampa covers.

Since joining the Bucs, Brady is 12-2 on the ML when laying -9.5 or more with Tampa Bay and won 11 of those games by at least three points, per NBC’s Edge Finder (pictured below).

Brady as -9.5 or more

Brady as -9.5 or more

For the Packers versus Jets, per NBC’s Edge Finder, over the last 12 games following a regular-season ML loss, the Packers are 12-0 ATS and on the ML (100%) with Rodgers.

That goes all the way back to 2018 and includes the cover and win versus the Bears this season. Rodgers has been an auto bet coming off a loss in the regular-season and versus the Jets, I am willing to bet that continues.

Coming off two-straight wins, the Jets are 2-6 on the ML (25%) dating back to 2016 and 3-4-1 ATS (42.8%).

Digging a little deeper, when New York is tagged as a road underdog coming off two-straight wins, the Jets are 1-7 on the ML (12.5%) and 2-5-1 ATS (28.5%), so not very profitable in that spot.

Rodgers has played the Jets three times in his career and went 3-0 ATS and on the ML, winning by six, seven and nine points in 2018, 2014 and 2010. I bet the Packers at -7 and teased them down to the ML in this teaser.

Packers coming off a loss

Packers coming off a loss

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7-POINT TEASER (-150) FanDuel

Saints vs Bengals Under 50.5

Jaguars vs Colts Under 48.0

Per NBC’s Edge Finder (graphs at the bottom), the Unders are 10-0 in the last 10 games for both the Bengals and Colts, including the postseason.

Both the Bengals and Colts are 5-0 to the Under this season, while the Jaguars and Saints are 3-2 to the Over.

For the Bengals versus Saints, Jameis Winston remains out for the Saints so Andy Dalton gets to face his former Bengals team and successor in Joe Burrow. This is also a return to Louisiana for Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, who played at LSU, but don’t expect fireworks in this matchup.

Both squads have above average defenses with the Bengals allowing 17.8 points per game (8th), 99.6 rushing yards per game (7th) and 19th in passing yards per game (227.4).

The Saints defensive numbers took a drastic hit last weekend from allowing 32 points and 396 total yards to the Seahawks. However, the Saints still rank 12th in passing defense (211.8 yards per game) and both teams rank 2nd and 8th in defensive red zone conversion rate, Saints (33.3%) and Bengals (41.7%), per SharpFootballAnalysis.

The O/U of 43.0 is a sharp number Bengals vs Saints, so I will take the extra 7 points and go Under 50.5 in this teaser as I expect plenty of field goals and a few red zone stops.

For the Colts versus Jaguars, Indy’s offense averages the fewest points per game (13.8) and Jacksonville’s defense is tied with the fourth-fewest points allowed per game (16.0). The Jaguars won 24-0 earlier in the season.

Jonathan Taylor is excepted to return for Indy and he isn’t 100-percent but needs to play since Nyheim Hines is out with a concussion and Matt Ryan hasn’t been able to get much going with seven interceptions to five touchdown passes (35.6 QBR).

AFC South matchups are 4-0 to the Under this season, 9-2 to the Under in the past 11 AFC South games and the Under is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings between the Jaguars and Colts in Indianapolis.

This game screams Under. I played the Under 42 by itself (should be 39.5) and took the 7 points in this teaser to Under 49 too.

Colts Under

Colts Under

Bengals Unders

Bengals Unders

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.