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Marcus Mariota O/U 229.5 Total Yards vs. Bengals
The Bengals are coming off games featuring some mobile quarterbacks like Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson and Taysom Hill.
While Tua only played a half and Hill played multiple positions, the Bengals still had to game plan for the opposing quarterbacks legs and they will here as well.
Marcus Mariota is coming off an upset win versus the 49ers as the Falcons continue to cover spreads (6-0 ATS).
However, Mariota’s stats haven’t been all that superb. He averages 175.8 passing yards and 34.3 rushing yards per game this season for 210.1 total yards per game.
Mariota has only hit the Over 229.5 total yards twice this season and that came back in Week 3 versus the Seahawks (233) and Week against the Saints (287). This prop opened at 233.5, which he was 5-1 to the Under.
The Bengals allow the lowest completion percentage in the NFL at 56.6% and the sixth-lowest yards per pass attempt at 5.8 yards. Cincy’s defense also has five interceptions to five touchdown passes allowed.
Mariota ranks 22nd in clean pocket percentage (68.7%), 23rd in deep ball completion percentage (31.6%) and 27th in true completion percentage (66.1%), plus average 3.2 deep passes per game (18th), per PlayerProfiler.
I don’t see Atlanta scoring tons of points or moving the ball drive after drive on the Bengals defense.
Miami was held to 15 points and Pittsburgh to 23 in the Bengals two home games.
This 233.5 number is too high and we’re already seeing the -110’s turn to -125’s and 229.5’s pop up.
Andy Dalton had 162 total yards in the past game and Lamar Jackson recorded 232.
So you’re basically betting on whether or not Marcus Mariota on the road will have more yards than Lamar Jackson did at home on Primetime versus the Bengals. I will say no to that.
I played Under 233.5 Total Yards at -125 on DraftKings. I will count this prop on my record at 229.5 at -115 odds.
DraftKings and BetMGM closed it and re-opened the prop after my article released but before I could tweet it.
I would play this down to 228.5 or split 1 unit on his Under 190.5 passing and 34.5 rushing yards.
Pick: Marcus Mariota Under 229.5 Total Yards (1u)
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