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How to bet the Lions vs Packers, Bills vs Jets and Colts vs Patriots

Jared Goff

Jared Goff

Junfu Han-USA TODAY Sports

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Vikings (-3) at Commanders: O/U 43.5

The Vikings continue to win and get lucky in doing so.

Minnesota has covered the last two games as favorites versus Skylar Thompson (Miami) and Kyler Murray (Arizona). The Vikings have six wins this season and five of those wins have come by eight or fewer points.

The lone loss for Minnesota was a 17-point road loss at Philadelphia in Week 2. Of the six teams Minnesota has beaten, those teams have a combined record of 15-24 on the ML.

The Commanders are under a bit of reconstruction with Taylor Heinicke but I have loved what this offense has been able to do. Washington is using Antonio Gibson the correct way as he’s posted 207 total yards in the last three games (two touchdowns), while Terry McLaurin has made an impact with 186 receiving yards on 11 receptions and 16 targets in the past two games (one touchdown).

The Commanders are on a three-game ATS and ML winning streak and I think that continues at home.

Kirk Cousins is 4-4 ATS as a Minnesota Viking when the spread is between -1 and -3 as a road favorite.

Minnesota is getting out-gained 383.1 to 345.7 yards per game this season and owns the last-place red-zone defense (32nd), while Washington is ranked 8th in red-zone defense.

Take the points with the home dog and buy the half-point at +3.5 (-122). I sprinkled the ML as they can win.

Pick: Commanders +3.5 (1u), Commanders ML (0.5u)

Packers (-3.5) at Lions: O/U 49.5

Will you continue to fade the Green Bay Packers on a four-game losing streak or are you buying into Aaron Rodgers’ words?

Well, you should know that in the last 10 meetings between the Lions and Packers, Detroit has covered eight times!

Whenever they play in Detroit, the Lions are even better ATS. The Packers are 0-5 ATS in the past five trips to Detroit and 2-7 ATS in the last nine dating back to 2013, per NBC’s Edge Finder.

Aaron Rodgers is 18-6 on the ML versus Detroit (75%) but only 13-11 ATS (54.1%).

A-Rod has struggled lately after owning Detroit early in his career and I think it’s safe to say: This is the worst version of the Packers, by a wide margin.

Lions vs Packers

Lions vs Packers

Detroit finally got the offense going against Miami last week and remain home for their second-straight home game.

The only other time this season Detroit has played back-to-back home games was Weeks 1 and 2. The Lions lost to the undefeated Eagles 38-35 and beat the Commanders 36-27.

Detroit has scored at least 27 points in all four home games and the Packers have scored 27 points just twice all season and once was against the Bears, which is so no surprise, and the other was in OT against the Patriots.

While the Green Bay offense will be able to put up points on Detroit’s defense, the Lions can keep up. The only two weeks that Detroit failed to score 24 or more points was the week prior to the bye week and week following their bye.

This is a better spot for the Lions in their second-straight home game. Detroit is 8-4 ATS (66.7%) at home since Dan Campbell took over in 2021 and 8-3 ATS as a home underdog (72.7%).

The Packers are 2-5 ATS (28.5%) in the last seven road games. Interestingly enough, Green Bay is 1-3 ATS and on the ML since 2021 in its four divisional road games.

Green Bay lost outright and failed to cover the past three divisional road games by about 10 points per game to the Vikings and Lions last year and the Vikings this year (Week 1).

Take the Lions and continue watching the Packers crash and burn.

I played the Lions +3 at -110 odds and sprinkled the ML at +140 odds.

Pick: Lions +3.5 (1u), Lions ML (0.5u)

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Bills (-13) at Jets: O/U 47.5

The Bills broke some people’s hearts on Sunday Night Football versus the Packers, but I think the fourth quarter of that game will drive the Bills to clean up their showing for a divisional opponent here.

Josh Allen and the Bills covered both meetings last year and three of the past four versus the Jets, per NBC’s Edge Finder.

Buffalo laid -13.5 and -15.5 in those two meetings and won by 17 and 28 points. In those two games, Buffalo laid -15.5 versus Mike White last season and -13.5 against Zach Wilson (7/20 for 87 passing yards, 1 TD).

We have a -13 and -13.5 spreads for the Bills versus Wilson, which doesn’t show much respect for the Jets after their loss against the Patriots nor a home field advantage for New York, which I think is plausible.

Bills vs Jets

Bills vs Jets

Buffalo has won four games by 10 or more points this season and in the Jets three losses, they lost by 5, 15 and 15 points to the Patriots, Ravens and Bengals.

This will only mark the third time that Allen is a -10 or more road favorite (1-1 ATS) with the previous trip to MetLife as the only cover versus the Jets.

The books expect it to be happen again and why not after Zach Wilson‘s shenanigans finally ran out against the Patriots (3 interceptions versus New England).

This Jets defense has nine interceptions this year and after Allen threw two last week, chances are Allen and Sean McDermott will be much more conservative with the ball in the red zone this week.

Wilson only has nine deep passes in five starts and five red zone passes in five games, per PlayerProfiler. With James Robinson not fully accustomed to the playbook and facing a Bills defense in a bounce back spot, it’s safe to say I don’t have high hopes for the Jets offense.

Roll with the big number and take the Bills -13 and expect an attempt at a back-door cover from the Jets, which will not work out. I would play this at -14.

Pick: Bills -13 (1u)

Colts at Patriots (-5.5): O/U 39.5

The +5.5 road underdog trend is play here. If you haven’t heard about it, it’s one of the most profitable trends in the NFL and traps the public into the home favorite every time.

Since 2020, a road underdog of +5.5 is 12-3 ATS (80%) and up 7.91 units (graphic below the pick).

The road dog has gone 8-5-2 on the ML (61.5%) and are up +11.29 units, per NBC’s Edge Finder, since 2020.

Going back all the way to 2012, the +5.5 road underdog is 43-23 ATS (65% and +16 units), plus 25-39-2 on the ML (39% and +13.79 units).

The Patriots did what they always do and beat the Jets last week. The Pats still aren’t good, so I am fine with playing this trend. Give me the Colts +5.5 and ML (+200) out of principle for the +5.5 road underdog rule.

This year, the +5.5 road dogs were as follows:

Giants +5.5 at Titans (Week 1)

Cardinals +5.5 at Raiders (Week 2)

Seahawks +5.5 at Saints (Week 5)

The Giants and Cardinals covered and won outright at +205 on the ML. The Seahawks blew the outright win and cover late. The Colts are live to cover and win outright.

Pick: Colts +5.5 (1u), Colts ML (0.5u)

Road Dog +5.5

Road Dog +5.5

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.