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How to bet Matthew Stafford, Kenneth Walker III and Amon-Ra St. Brown

Matthew Stafford

Matthew Stafford

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

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Matthew Stafford O/U 35.5 Pass Attempts vs. Buccaneers

What are we doing here?

Why is Matthew Stafford‘s passing attempts only 35.5 when their leading rusher was Ronnie Rivers last week? The Rams have one rush of 20-plus yards this season. Do you know who it came from?

Wide receiver Cooper Kupp is the answer. Only 23% of the Rams’ totaled yardage has come from the ground (31st).

Kupp is healthy enough to play in this game between the two most recent Super Bowl winners and that will only assist us in cashing this prop.

In the past four games, Stafford has recorded 33, 33, 42 and 48 pass attempts, losing three of those four. This is a big game for the Rams and there should be no stopping this team from airing it out 60% of the time.

The Rams currently rank second in the NFL with a 65.89% pass percentage and the Bucs allowed opponents to pass 57.20% of the time (14th). If the Rams want to win, they have to pass and 65% might be the bare minimum here.

I played Stafford Over 35.5 Pass Attempts at -120 odds for 1.5 units. I would play this at 36.5 for 1 unit.

Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 35.5 Pass Attempts (1.5u)

Kenneth Walker O/U 73.5 Rushing Yards vs. Cardinals

Kenneth Walker was watching Dameon Pierce on Thursday Night and was thinking on Sunday, hold my beer.

The Rookie of the Year race is down to these two running backs with Chris Olave on the outside looking in. Walker has been fantastic since taking over Seattle’s backfield.

In the past four games, Walker has averaged 17.5 rushing attempts for 100.7 rushing yards and five touchdowns.

Week 5 At Saints: 8 carries, 88 yards, 1 touchdown (56% snap share)

Week 6 Vs Cardinals: 21 carries, 97 yards, 1 touchdown (70.8% snap share)

Week 7 At Chargers: 23 carries, 167 yards, 2 touchdowns (73.0% snap share)

Week 8 Vs Giants: 18 carries, 51 yards, 1 touchdown (77.4% snap share)

The Cardinals rush defense could not contain him the first time around and I am not sure they have gotten much better since Alvin Kamara and Dalvin Cook gashed them anyway they wanted.

When you look through the game logs, they aren’t many running backs who didn’t find success against Arizona, if any. With his snap share climbing and his production being steady, let’s see if he is truly motivated from Pierce’s showing to go get that Rookie of the Year Award against a defense he already gashed for 97 yards.

I played Walker Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (-115) at DraftKings. I’d play this to 76.5 or pivot to an anytime TD.

Pick: Kenneth Walker Over 73.5 Rushing Yards (1u)

Amon-Ra St. Brown O/U 6.5 Receptions vs. Packers

No more T.J. Hockenson and that shows the trust in Amon-Ra St. Brown as a No. 1 WR in the NFL.

Without Hockenson, St. Brown has five career games played and hit eight or more receptions in all five games with four outings of 90-plus yards and four-straight games with a touchdown scored, per statmuse.

The previous meeting versus Green Bay came without Hockenson, oddly enough, and it resulted in eight receptions on 10 targets for 109 yards and a touchdown for St. Brown.

Amon Ra St Brown

Amon Ra St Brown

The Lions star finally looked healthy and good to go in his previous start versus the Miami Dolphins. St. Brown recorded seven receptions on 10 targets for 69 yards and a 9.9 yards per reception average.

Against the Packers last season, St. Brown went OFF in Detroit. That was the game without Hockenson: eight receptions, 109 yards and a touchdown for 13.6 yards per reception.

St. Brown has recorded seven-plus receptions in six-straight home games, including 10 for more targets in all six games. In that six-game home stretch, he has scored six total touchdowns in five different games.

I think he has a huge game here and continues his streak of 7-plus receptions without Hockenson and at home.

I played Over 6.5 receptions a -120 odds on FanDuel. It’s -140 on DraftKings.

A touchdown is worth a sprinkle at +115 odds. I would not play this at Over 7.5 receptions.

Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 6.5 Receptions (1u)

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Picks Already Given Out

Colts +5.5 and ML at Patriots (The +5.5 road underdog rule)

Lions +3.5 and ML vs Packers (Rodgers is 0-5 ATS in L5 at Detroit)

Bills -12.5 at Jets (I shouldn’t have to explain)

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.