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How to bet the Thursday Night Showdown between the Ravens and Bucs

Mark Andrews

Mark Andrews

Paul Rutherford-USA TODAY Sports

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Ravens at Buccaneers (-1.5): O/U 46.0

Tom Brady versus Lamar Jackson.

This should be full with points and be fun, but it won’t be. It’s Thursday Night Football (TNF) and Father Time has finally caught up with Brady at age 45.

Tampa Bay’s offense has mustered up 3, 18, 21, 31, 12, 20 and 19 points in seven games this season, only surpassing 21 points once.

Since scoring 31 points versus the Chiefs on Primetime, the Bucs scored 12, 20 and 19 points versus the Falcons, Steelers and Panthers. Tampa Bay averages 17.7 points per game (T-25th) on the season and Brady is 0-3 ATS in his three TNF games with Tampa Bay.

With the Ravens, Jackson is 1-2 on the ML and ATS during TNF games, only beating and covering versus the Jets in 2019 as -17 favorites.

Jackson has one TNF game since 2021 and it was a 22-10 loss at the Dolphins hitting the Under. They played the Vikings at home the week before and went to OT, winning by three. The Ravens barely escaped the Browns at home last week, winning by three.

TNF is on a 16-5 run to the Under (76.1%) and hit the Over last week between the Cardinals and Saints.

In that 21-game Under stretch for TNF, the Over has only hit back-to-back weeks once.

The Bucs have scored more than 21 points once this season and now they are on a short week after taking a bruising loss to the Panthers. Tampa Bay has not played on a short week all season, so this is a tough spot to see the home team putting up points. The Bucs defense is good enough to keep them in this game, so I will roll with the Under.

I played the Game Under 46.0 at -110 odds and would play down to 45.0.

Pick: Under 46.0 (1u)

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Ravens 1H +1 vs. Buccaneers

I want to focus on the first-half of games for both teams because Baltimore has allowed a fourth-quarter score in every game thus far this season and Tampa Bay has started extremely slow.

On the road, the Ravens have led all three of their opponents at halftime. The Ravens led the Giants 10-7 at half, the Ravens led the Patriots 14-7 at half and the Ravens led the Jets 10-3 at halftime.

At home, the Bucs trailed the Packers 14-3 at halftime and trailed the Chiefs 28-17 at halftime. The Bucs led the Falcons 13-0 at halftime, but blew that lead in the second-half.

Over the last two games, which both came on the road, the Bucs trailed the Steelers 10-9 at halftime and the Panthers 7-0 at half. This Tampa Bay offense is terrible and continues to start slow, no matter on the road or at home.

The Ravens average 3.6 points per game in the fourth quarter (26th) compared to 5.3 points per game in the first quarter (T-9th) and 9.7 points per game in the second quarter (T-4th), so they are continuing to start quick.

I played the Ravens 1H +1 at -115 odds and would play it to -130.

Picks: Ravens 1H +1 (0.5u)

Mark Andrews Anytime TD vs. Buccaneers

Mark Andrews has three career games on Thursday Night Football and has scored a touchdown every time.

Against the Bengals, Jets and Dolphins, Andrews recorded 13 receptions on 19 targets for 132 receiving yards and three touchdowns.

Andrews didn’t have a reception on National Tight Ends Day over two targets, so I expect him to be more involved this week. Baltimore has struggled in the red zone and Justin Tucker has made at least two fields goals in four-straight games because of it.

Gus Edwards and Kenyan Drake will only take Baltimore so far in the red zone. Last week we saw Baltimore fumble late in the end zone and that is just one of the many problems with this team in the fourth quarter.

Andrews has scored a touchdown in four of the past five road games and five of the previous eight road games. Overall, Andrews has scored five total touchdowns in four out of the last six games this season.

The Panthers’ Tommy Tremble scored last week versus the Bucs, while the Chiefs’ Travis Kelce found the end zone against Tampa Bay, plus his backup, Joe Fortson.

Andrews also had a “trick-play” where he pitched the ball to Lamar Jackson from under center, so there is a chance Andrews could be used in creative sets this week. Jackson started the season with 10 passing touchdowns in three games but has three passing touchdowns over the last four games.

With Rashod Bateman and Andrews getting healthier, Baltimore will have to work the two into the passing game more often and Andrews is the top target.

I played Andrews to find the end zone for +200 odds on FanDuel vs +120 on DraftKings.

Pick: Mark Andrews Anytime TD (0.5u)

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.