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Cooper Kupp O/U 7.5 Receptions vs. Bills
The first player prop of the year is none other than Cooper Kupp.
Buffalo will be without star cornerback Tre’Davious White for the season-opener, giving Kupp a mismatch against Taron Johnson, Kaiir Elam and/or Dane Jackson. Time to eat.
The Rams star wideout was 6-3 to the Over 7.5 receptions at home last season and 8-4 if you count the postseason. I don’t expect Kupp to replicate his 145 receptions from last season, but in competitive games, Kupp should be targeted at least 10 times every time.
When the Rams are laying -13 against the Texans, Kupp could end with anywhere between 5-7 receptions, but when the Rams are underdogs, Kupp should be the primary target and get fed breakfast, lunch and dinner.
NBC’s player prop model projects Kupp at 8.8 receptions on 11.6 targets for 118.2 yards and a touchdown versus Buffalo. Kupp is projected to lead the game in receptions, yards and targets, which is no surprise.
When the Rams were underdogs twice last year, Kupp had 9 receptions on 12 targets for 96 yards (two touchdowns) versus the Bucs, plus 13 receptions on 15 targets and 123 yards (one touchdown) against the Cardinals.
In 2020 with Jared Goff as the quarterback, the Rams were underdogs four times and Kupp had eight or more receptions in three of those games, making Kupp is 5-1 to the Over 7.5 receptions since 2020 when the Rams are underdogs.
With Robert Woods, Kupp was 5-4 to the Over 7.5 receptions, hitting seven receptions in three of the four Unders last year. I do not expect Allen Robinson to take away from too much of Kupp’s production right away but Robinson will be an upgrade over Woods long-term.
Lastly, Kupp has one career game versus Buffalo and recorded nine receptions on 10 targets for 107 yards and one touchdown with Goff as his quarterback in 2020. Buffalo’s Tre’Davious White also played in that game.
Let’s take Kupp Over 7.5 receptions at -135 odds on MGM. FanDuel lists this at -154 and DraftKings at -145.
I would not play this at Over 8.5 receptions.
Pick: Cooper Kupp Over 7.5 Receptions (1u)
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Bills (-2.5) at Rams: O/U 52.5
The Bills come into Los Angeles as -2.5 point favorites after opening as +2.5 point underdogs.
The NFL’s Super Bowl winner from the year prior is 14-5-2 ATS in Week 1 over the last 21 seasons. However, most of the tickets, and people I know are on the Bills.
The Super Bowl loser is 5-16 ATS in that same span (Bengals -6.5 vs Steelers in Week 1).
Sean McVay is 1-2 ATS and on the ML in his career as a home underdog. Both losses came in 2019 and 2017 to the Ravens and 49ers. The Over has hit all three with the Rams as home dogs.
As an underdog in general, McVay is 11-2 to the Over (84.6%), 7-5-1 ATS (58.3%) and 6-7 on the ML (46.1%).
Sean McDermott is 11-4 on the ML as a road favorite (73.3%), 9-6 ATS (60%) and 8-6-1 to the Over (73.3%).
I would rather get some live in-game value on the Rams or Bills, but if this gets to +3 or +3.5, I will probably take the Rams for a smaller bet.
The Bills will be a very public bet with Josh Allen garnering MVP hype and how Buffalo’s season ended versus Kansas City in the postseason. Buffalo is one of the best teams in the NFL, but so is Los Angeles.
This is a lean for now.
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Lean: Rams +2.5
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