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Saints at Cardinals (-2): O/U 44.5
It’s Thursday Night Football and bettors everywhere are hoping for an Over and they just might get it, maybe.
Thursday Night Football is on a 17-5 run to the Under dating back to 2021 (77.2%).
This season, the Under is 5-1 (83.3%) and hit three-straight on TNF.
The favorite has also done well, going 5-1 on the ML (83.3%) and 4-2 ATS (66.7%).
Arizona failed to score a touchdown versus Seattle on Sunday, but get a boost with DeAndre Hopkins back from suspension and a trade that acquired Robbie Anderson from Carolina.
New Orleans has been shredded over the past three games allowing 28, 32 and 30 points to Minnesota, Seattle and Cincinnati, so there is hope for Arizona.
However, the spread opened at Cardinals -2.5 and is now Cardinals -2 after sitting at Cardinals -1 for two days.
Then factor in Kyler Murray’ s 0-3 ML and 1-2 ATS record on Thursday Night Football and it gets difficult to trust Arizona on a short week.
Arizona’s offense did score 21, 21 and 25 in those three TNF games, something they would love to replicate here.
The total opened at 47.0 and 46.5 most places, but is now at 44.5, so the value is on the Over.
There are plenty of stats to support it, but so far these are two of the worst 12-ranked defenses in the NFL and neither team generates interceptions (3 combined picks), so I will lay off the TNF Under and look at a live bet angle there.
1H: Saints at Cardinals (-1): O/U 22.0
One thing I noticed is both teams have struggled in the first half of games this season.
The Cardinals are one of three teams that are 0-6 ATS in the first-half (Bears, Colts), while the Saints are 2-4 ATS in the first-half. New Orleans is 0-2 ATS on the road and Arizona is 0-3 ATS at home this season.
This is an ugly game and a 50-50 bet on the full game spread and total, leaving me to shake things up.
Let’s roll with Arizona 1H ML at -120 odds on DraftKings and hedge out in the second-half if need be.
The additions of Hopkins and Anderson to this offense will bring excitement at home, which I think will get this Cardinals team going.
The Saints played two-straight homes games after a London trip. So this is New Orleans first true road game since September 25th (almost a month).
New Orleans scored 0 points in the first half at Carolina and 7 points at Atlanta back in the first three weeks of the season, when they were much healthier. Since then, injuries have plagued this team.
The Saints are attempting to figure out who’s under center between Andy Dalton and Jameis Winston this week, plus New Orleans has plenty of injuries to both sides of the ball to Marshon Lattimore, Michael Thomas and more.
New Orleans and the total are angles for live bets in this game. Back the Cardinals in the first 30 minutes.
Pick: Cardinals 1H ML (1u)
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DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD vs. Saints
Dustin Hopkins was the MVP of the MNF game between the Chargers and Broncos, but this time, it’ll be DeAndre Hopkins on TNF (hopefully).
The Cardinals Marquise Brown suffered a foot injury and could be out for the remainder of the season, so Hopkins’ return couldn’t have come at a better time, along with the trade for Robbie Anderson.
Kyler Murray leads the NFL in passing attempts (215), ranks second in pace (2.27), eighth in red zone pass attempts (29) but owns subpar accuracy rating in the red zone and a lower than usual yards per pass attempt. This Cardinals offense averages 19.0 ppg (22nd) compared to 25.6 last year (T-10th). Hopkins can assist in that department.
Hopkins scored in six out of 10 games last season and 10 of his past 20 games with Arizona.
In two career games versus New Orleans as a member of the Texans, Hopkins recorded five receptions for 36 yards (8 targets) and eight receptions for 111 yards (13 targets) and two touchdowns.
On Thursday Night Football, Hopkins has failed to score a touchdown in two-straight games, but had four touchdowns in the 2018 and 2019 TNF games (two touchdowns apiece).
I think Hopkins makes an immediate impact with the Cardinals in his first game back and they attempt to feed him the ball in the red zone.
Arizona failed to score a touchdown versus Seattle, so a few fades and deep routes to D-Hop is a necessity.
I bet D-Hop anytime TD at +130 odds on PointsBet. It’s +120 at FanDuel and +115 on DraftKings.
I sprinkled D-Hop to score the 1st Cardinals TD at +360 odds on DraftKings, not the 1st TD of the game.
Pick: DeAndre Hopkins Anytime TD (1u), DeAndre Hopkins 1st Cardinals TD (0.25u)
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.
