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Over the past couple of weeks everyone has had an opinion on how to bet Super Bowl 56. Every player and game prop has been examined. Today I’m going to take a few moments to actually handicap the game. Odds via PointsBet.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Cincinnati Bengals (+4) Total: 48.5
The Rams were +1500 on Aug. 10 to win it all. Only the Chiefs and Packers had shorter odds. Outside of a three-game losing streak in the month of November, Los Angeles lived up to expectations. The Rams finished the regular season 12-5 on the Money Line, winning five of their last six games. They were also 8-9 ATS and 9-7-1 to the Over.
Cincinnati was not on anyone’s radar prior to the season. The Bengals’ regular season Over/Under win total was 6.5, and they were +12500 on Aug. 10 to win the Super Bowl. Nonetheless, Cincinnati finished the regular season with a 10-7 record on the Money Line and against the spread, while going 8-8-1 to the Over. The Bengals started to raise eyebrows in late October when they went to Baltimore and blew out the Ravens and then wrapped up the season with back-to-back wins over the Ravens and Chiefs en route to winning the AFC North.
During the regular season and postseason as favorites, the Rams have gone 7-10 ATS but 12-5 on the Money Line. On the other side, the Bengals have thrived as underdogs, going 8-3 ATS and 7-4 on the Money Line this season. Interestingly, the Under has cashed in 70% of the games where the Bengals were Underdogs. When you break down these numbers, you see that the Rams were overvalued this season, while the Bengals were undervalued.
PointsBet opened this game up with the Rams as four-point favorites and that number touched 3.5 briefly a few times, but for the most part, the spread has been between 4 and 4.5. Throughout the regular season and playoffs, favorites of either 4 or 4.5 points are 10-11 ATS and 12-9 on the Money Line.
PointsBet is reporting 57% of the bets and 54% of the handle on the Bengals. That would make the Bengals a trendy Underdog. I have spent the whole season fading trendy dogs. Why would I change now? Additionally, the Total opened up at 49.5. Over 60% of the handle is on the Over, yet the total has dropped to 48.5. I love the Under in this game.
To close the NFL season out, my final handicap of the year is actually a parlay. I like the Rams on the Money Line and the Under. I will also have a wager on Rams -4.
Edge: Rams Money Line and Under 48.5
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