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As we get closer to the official start of the NFL season, I took time to find out from our partners over at PointsBet which teams were seeing the most action on the Over on their regular season win totals. I was surprised to learn that the Kansas City Chiefs were not one of those teams.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - O/U 12
The defending champs have a regular season win total set at 12. The only team with a higher regular season win total is the team they beat in the Super Bowl, the Kansas City Chiefs. Personally I think the Chiefs are a better bet to go over their win total but let’s continue with the Bucs. The Bucs original number was set at 11.5, and heavy betting on the Over pushed the number up to 12. The original number was the best bet. Twelve feels like a push to me. Tampa is projected to be the favorites in 16 of their 17 games this season. The only time they will be the underdogs is when they travel to Los Angeles in Week 3 to face the Rams. Outside of their own division, the Bucs will play the AFC East and NFC East. Both of those divisions have improved coming into the season. Tampa also has games vs. the Colts and the Bears on their schedule, two tough defenses. I would not be surprised if Tampa got off to a slow start and then got hot down the stretch. I see them as a 12-5 team.
Buffalo Bills - O/U 11
The Bills 2020 season ended with an AFC title game loss to the Kansas City Chiefs. Expectations are high for the Buffalo Bills coming into the 2021 season. They are projected to be the favorites in 15 of their 17 games. The Bills have a legit MVP candidate in QB Josh Allen. But one thing that worries me about the Bills’ schedule is the road games. They play games in Kansas City, Tennessee, New Orleans and Tampa. Winning at least two of those four games will be critical for bettors backing the Bills to go Over their number. The Bills close the season with three of their final four games in Buffalo. The Bills will not lose six games this season. I think they are at least a 12 or 13 win team.
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Cleveland Browns - O/U 10.5
The Browns are coming off an 11-win season that saw them win a playoff game vs. the rival Pittsburgh Steelers before they were eliminated by the Chiefs. PointsBet originally had the Browns projected win total set at 9.5 (-150) that number has been bet up a full point to 10.5 (-110). The Browns are facing the third-easiest schedule in the league based on current win totals. They are projected to be the favorites in 13 of their 17 games this season. Last season, the Browns racked up wins vs. the AFC South and the lowly NFC East. This season they face the NFC North and AFC West. The AFC West will be tough for the Browns. They travel to the Chiefs, Chargers and Broncos. They also have road games against the Patriots and Packers, not to mention two games vs. their division rival Ravens. I don’t see the Browns winning 12 games; they are a 9-win team at best.
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