One of the first questions I received when Leonard Fournette signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers was related to sports betting.
“What does this do their Super Bowl odds?”
The answer is mostly nothing. Running backs come and go in the NFL, a sport where bookmakers care much more about offensive lines than the guys running behind the big boys.
Plus, the Buccaneers were already the public darlings of the entire offseason. The addition of Tom Brady led to insane betting handle in all the future markets. Quarterbacks move the meter in pro football and the Brady move was a prime example.
“We had Tampa at 50-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in March before the Brady signing,” PointsBet Sportsbook senior sports analyst Andrew Mannino told NBC Sports. “They’re now at 14-to-1 and we’ve seen action pretty much across the board. They’re our second biggest liability on the championship and they’re our most bet team to win the NFC and NFC South. This accumulation of talent has certainly gotten bettors excited.”
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Another conversation I love to have with bookmakers involves running backs and their value to the point spread. Elite threats like Saquon Barkley, Christian McCaffrey and Ezekiel Elliott can be worth 1.5 to 2 points.
So what about Fournette?
“I don’t think Fournette has much of an impact to the point spread,” Mannino said. “It’s a good opportunity for him and it’s a good landing spot for him as a player. But right now, it’s just not going to have a major impact on the spread.”
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PointsBet is dealing the Buccaneers as 3.5-point road underdogs in Week 1 at New Orleans. The point total (O/U 49.5) is more fascinating to me and it will be all season. I believe bettors will automatically look to bet Tampa Overs because of Brady and all the weapons he has to work with on offense.
“You certainly have to be aware of the perception, but we have to let the market dictate it,” Mannino explained. “We ran into a similar issue last year with James Harden when he was on that incredible streak scoring unbelievable point numbers every night. It felt ridiculous putting up O/U 38.5, but he would still hit the over. So we’ll obviously monitor it and take the bettors’ actions into account. You’ll see some high totals in the early going and then we’ll respond accordingly.”
