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Rams (-16.5) at Texans: O/U 46.5
My Blitzing the Board play.
I would not touch the Rams on the full game spread, but I like L.A. a lot in the first half. The fact that we get -7 (-118) and not -7.5 is enough for me.
This has moved to -9 on some books, so if you watched our NBC show live or after, congrats on the Closing Value.
The Texans, over the last four weeks, have ridden the struggle bus. Here is how the Texans have fared at the half and full game.
Week 4: Bills led 16-0 at half -- Bills won 40-0
Week 5: Texans led 16-9 at half -- Patriots won 25-22
Week 6: Colts led 10-3 at half -- Colts won 31-3
Week 7: Cardinals led 17-5 -- Cardinals won 31-5
Houston has played four teams with winning records, three of them listed above and Cleveland as the other. Tyrod Taylor was the quarterback in the Texas-Browns game, so I cannot put too much stock into that first half.
The Rams have two big matchups on deck in Week 9 and 10. L.A. will have a home game on Sunday Night Football versus the Titans, then a Monday Night Football trip to San Francisco to take on the 49ers.
With those two games on deck, the Rams will not go all out for 60 minutes to blow the Texans out, but for the first 30 minutes, they will. Against teams with losing records, here is how the Rams have done over the last three weeks.
Week 5: Seahawks led Rams 7-3 at half -- Rams won 26-17
Week 6: Rams led Giants 28-3 at half -- Rams won 38-11
Week 7: Rams led Lions 17-16 at half -- Rams won 28-19
The Rams led by seven or more points in one of those three games, but Russell Wilson will not be quarterbacking for the Texans.
In the matchup against the Lions, well, if you watched the first half or bet the Lions Team Total Under 16.5 with me, you were shocked to see an onside kick and a fake punt early in the game (so were the Rams).
I get that Houston will not want to be blown out again, but L.A. will not entertain another Detroit situation in the first half.
The Rams want to get out to a large enough lead that they can cruise on autopilot in the second half and stay healthy for a home meeting with Tennessee on SNF. Back the Rams in the first half against the Texans.
I would pass on the -9 1H spread if you are late to the party and opt for a Texans 1H Team Total Under 7 (-110) for 0.5 unit.
Pick: Rams 1H -7 (1.5u)
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Titans at Colts (-2.5): O/U 51
If you watched the show, you were told to go bet the Colts.
Since then, the Colts ML moved from -120 to -140 and the spread from -1.5 to -2.5. Line movement can be telling, so I will be on Indy.
While most people won’t understand because Tennessee is coming off wins against Buffalo and Kansas City, the two top dogs in the AFC. However, this is the ultimate letdown spot versus a divisional opponent.
It’s hard to look great back-to-back weeks in the NFL, but three straight weeks, I mean, come on.
These two teams have split the last 10 meetings, with the Colts winning four of the last seven, but the Titans taking three of the last four with Ryan Tannehill under center, per NBC’s Edge Finder.
The Over has cashed three times in the four with Tannehill. The only Under was earlier in the season (25-16), hitting Under 47, but multiple key players were missing. The total for this meeting is 51, so the sportsbooks expect points.
Over the last two seasons, the Colts are 7-4 on the ML at home (63.6%) and 12-7 over the past three seasons (63.6%).
The Titans are on a three-game winning streak. They have only covered the spread in the fourth-game three out of 10 times (30%) and won four out of 10 straight up (40%), per NBC’s Edge Finder.
Bet on the Colts ML despite the Titans being the better team. It’s going to be public (Titans) versus sharps (Colts).
Pick your side.
I grabbed -135 and would play out to -150 before grabbing -3.
Pick: Colts ML (1u)
Dolphins at Bills (-14): O/U 48.5
The Bills received a hefty -14 point spread ahead of a home matchup with the Dolphins. In the first meeting, Buffalo won 35-0 and used a pair of first and fourth-quarter touchdowns to beat Miami for the sixth-straight time.
Over the last six meetings, Buffalo has covered the spread four times (66.7%). However, Buffalo had a -17 point spread and did not cover that in 2019. Last year, Buffalo was +3.5 and -3.5 in the two meetings, which seems laughable now.
The Bills scored 31 or more points in all six games, including all three at home, per NBC’s Edge Finder. The Over hit five straight between these until the last meeting, because Miami was shutout.
I expect Miami to score this time around, but they will not be able to stop Buffalo once again.
The Dolphins are on a six-game losing streak, including the last two outings from the Jaguars (23-20) and Falcons (30-28). In four games against teams with winning records, here is how Dolphins’ games have worked out.
Week 2: Bills won 35-0
Week 3: Raiders won 31-28 (OT)
Week 4: Colts won 27-17
Week 5: Bucs won 45-17
Three of those four teams have scored 31 or more points, and all four at 27-plus. During the six-game losing streak Miami is on, the Dolphins have surrendered 31.8 points per game.
Miami lost Jason McCourty to the injured reserve, and the rest of the defense seems to be in shambles.
The Dolphins injury report on defense looks like this: CB Xavien Howard (shoulder/groin), CB Byron Jones (Achilles/groin), CB Noah Igbinoghene (knee/ankle), S BranDon Jones (ankle), LB Jaelan Phillips (ankle), LB Elandon Roberts (shoulder) and LB Jerome Baker (knee).
That is a lot of moving parts, and with the Bills Over 3.5 touchdowns at -150 odds, it is safe to say the Bills should score at least 27-28 points in this matchup. Asking for 31 seems fair and worth a bet for 1 unit.
I grabbed the Bills Team Total Over 31.0 for -121 odds on PointsBet Thursday. They moved to the line to 31.5 -105 to the Over, but I prefer not to play the 31.5 as the 31 is a key number.
If you have the Bills Team Total at 30.5, I would play that out to -140 odds as that is still available on some books.
If you have 31.5, play Bills -14 for 0.5 unit or tease them down to -7 (which I like a lot).
Pick: Buffalo Bills Team Total Over 30.5 (1u)
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