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James Robinson O/U 71.5 Rushing Yards vs. Seahawks
James Robinson has been one of the hottest running backs in the NFL, hitting his Over rushing prop in four straight weeks.
The Jaguars take on the Seattle Seahawks in a competitive game between Geno Smith and Trevor Lawrence.
With that being said, Robinson should not have to worry about the game script taking away his carries.
NBC’s player prop model projects Robinson to burst out for 105.8 rushing yards against Seattle. Robinson hit 88, 78, 149 and 73 rushing yards in the last four games.
Seattle has the fourth-worst rushing defense in the NFL, with 939 rushing yards permitted and the second-most rushing attempts against them (223). Seattle has been eaten alive but running backs this season.
Week 7: Alvin Kamara - 20 attempts, 51 yards
Week 6: Najee Harris - 24 attempts, 81 yards
Week 5: Darrell Henderson - 17 attempts, 82 yards, 1 TD
Week 4: Trey Sermon - 18 attempts, 89 yards
Week 3: Alexander Mattison - 26 attempts, 112 yards
Week 2: Derrick Henry - 35 attempts, 182 yards. 3 TDs
Week 1: Chris Carson - 16 attempts, 91 yards
Teams love to run on the Seahawks, and with Russell Wilson out, most of them can lead the majority of the contest or remain competitive enough to mix in the run and the pass.
I expect Lawrence to have himself a day against this Seattle defense, but only if Robinson can get his first.
Pick: James Robinson Over 71.5 Rushing Yards (1.5u)
Antonio Gibson O/U 50.5 Rushing Yards vs. Broncos
Antonio Gibson is off the injury report for the first time since Week 3.
NBC’s player prop model projects Gibson to rush for 56.5 yards, hitting the Over and showing slight value. I did expect a line of O/U 59.5 rushing yards or higher.
Gibson has run for Over 50.5 yards in five out of seven games (71.4%), hitting 51 yards exactly in the previous outing. Gibson has 51 or more rushing yards in three of the last four games.
Lately, the Broncos rush defense has gotten weaker, and that could be because of injuries to star linebackers Von Miller and Bradley Chubb. Here is a look at Week 1 to 7 and how the Broncos have done against the opponent’s leading rusher.
Week 1: Saquon Barkley - 10 attempts, 26 yards
Week 2: James Robinson - 11 attempts, 47 yards
Week 3: Michael Carter - 9 attempts, 24 yards
Week 4: Lamar Jackson - 18 attempts, 59 yards, 1 TD
Week 5: Najee Harris - 23 attempts, 122 yards, 1 TD
Week 6: Josh Jacobs - 16 attempts, 53 yards, 1 TD
Week 7: D’Ernest Johnson - 22 attempts, 146 yards, 1 TD
Denver has a few other injuries on the defensive side that Gibson can exploit as Harris, Jacobs, or Johnson did over the last three games.
The Football Team potentially gets healthier on the offensive line with Brandon Scherff questionable. Curtis Samuel is 100-percent out and Terry McLaurin’s tagged questionable but should play, which takes the pressure off Denver loading the box versus Gibson.
I would play Gibson up to 59.5 rushing yards as I expect him to get 15-plus carries. I grabbed the Over 50.5 rushing yards at -115 odds.
I will also play Gibson to find the end zone for +140 odds as four straight leading rushers have scored against Denver. Gibson has not scored in two straight games -- this sounds like a good time to do so.
Pick: Antonio Gibson Over 50.5 Rushing Yards (1u), Anytime TD (0.5u)
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Jalen Hurts O/U 252.5 Passing Yards vs. Lions
If you remember our Monday Night Football win on Jalen Hurts, I stated a big reason why I was playing him was his road success. Well, he is on the road after two straight Unders following our win.
Back to the basics. Great spot for Hurts to get some air yards and flex his muscles against a winless team, and hit an Over away from Philly.
If you think Detroit gets the first win of the season here, cool, that means Hurts will have to get his in order to prove the doubters wrong.
Some in Philly (I used to live there) say Hurts is close to being benched. If that is true, then we can expect him to play for his job Sunday.
Hurts had 264 or more passing yards in four straight road starts before hitting the Under in the last two. He had 198 and 236 passing yards per statmuse.
The Lions have allowed the second-most passing plays of 20 yards or more downfield (32), and the second-most passing plays 40 yards-plus (7). Detroit also allows the second-most first downs by passing in the NFL (59.3%).
Six out of seven starting quarterbacks have gone for 255 or more passing yards against the Lions, per statmuse.
Players like DeVonta Smith and Jalen Reagor were made for matchups against the Lions, so expect them to get a fair share of targets.
I played Hurts Over 252.5 passing yards for -113 odds. I would play it up to 259.5 passing yards.
Pick: Jalen Hurts Over 252.5 passing yards (1.5u)
Davis Mills O/U 223.5 Passing Yards vs. Rams
I want my money back, Davis Mills and you’re going to give it to me!
I lost my first Mills bet back against the Patriots when he threw for 200 passing yards in the first half. Well, I bet he won’t do it again, literally.
Against the Bills, Cardinals and Colts, Mills recorded 465 total passing yards, 0 touchdowns and six interceptions. Houston scored eight points. The Rams will come at Mills in the first half and make life uncomfortable for the Texans signal-caller.
If we are talking defensive pass defense and DVOA, the Rams are similar to the Cardinals and Bills ranking a few spots behind them, so we should not expect anything different.
Mills has gone Under 223.5 passing yards in four out of six games (67%), and NBC’s player prop model projects 186.9 passing yards, hitting the Under.
Los Angeles is tied ninth in the NFL with 7.0 passing yards per attempt and permitted the third-fewest passing touchdowns (7). The Rams also have 10 interceptions on the year, which ranks tied for second—bad news for Mills.
The game script will favor Mills throwing 29-plus times for the fourth time in five games, but this is too many yards against Los Angeles.
I would play this down to 220.5 passing yards. I grabbed the 223.5 at -115 odds.
Pick: Davis Mills Under 223.5 Passing Yards (1u)
Daniel Jones O/U 241.5 Passing Yards vs. Chiefs
Here is how we will finish off our week. Danny Dimes on Monday Night Football.
I have joked about him before. Danny Pennies. Danny Nickels. We bet his first interception of the season against the Saints, and it hit. It was all fun and games.
Let’s get serious this time.
Jones is quietly having a “decent” season minus the three-interception game against the Rams. He tossed at least one touchdown in four of his six healthy games and tossed 203 or more yards in five games.
The target number needed here is more than 241.5 passing yards. Jones has thrown 242 yards or more in five out of seven games (71.4%).
Here is a look at Jones’ hit rates from this season, per NBC’s player prop model. PointsBet has him at 243.5, so it is showing one Under as he finished with 242 two weeks ago. I would still play Over 243.5.
Now let’s look at how the Chiefs have done versus quarterbacks. Six out of seven starting quarterbacks have thrown for 239 or more passing yards against the Chiefs.
Only Taylor Heinicke (182) and Lamar Jackson (239) went Under 243.5 passing yards against Kansas City this season.
Overall, the Chiefs allow the third-most yards per pass attempt (8.6), the fifth-most passing yards (1,930) and the seventh-highest quarterback rate (104.0).
Jones ranks ninth in air yards (2,034) and 13th in air yards per pass attempt (8.4). Saquon Barkley and Kenny Golladay are ruled out, and that will force Jones to pass more than he wants, making this a great bet for the Over passing yards.
Kadarius Toney and Sterling Shepard are next in line, and if they are a go, Jones will be in good shape come Monday Night.
I grabbed the Over 241.5 passing yards at -120 odds and would play this up to 249.5 passing yards.
Pick: Daniel Jones Over 241.5 Passing Yards (1u)
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