Welcome to the Sunday Prop Shop.
Every weekend, we’ll dive inside the thousands of NFL props from our friends over at PointsBet Sportsbook. All prop bets will be tracked for accountability at the bottom of every write-up. Let’s go.
Adrian Peterson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Peterson is not Derrick Henry but the Titans played like he and the rest of their backs were some facsimile of Henry in their Week 9 win. After running the ball on 48 percent of their plays through eight weeks, Tennessee rushed on 47 percent of the time in their first outing without Henry. Peterson led the team with 10 carries and that came after he was with the team for less than a week. He should gain a stranglehold on the team’s carries this week and cruise past this prop. This is the strongest bet of the week by far and after having one bet voided last week due to an injury, we’ll catch up by doubling the investment in this prop versus the rest.
Quez Watkins Over 27.5 Receiving Yards (-115)
Watkins topped this prop in six consecutive weeks but his pace has been slowed by the Eagles’ shift toward a run-heavy approach. However, in that same span of weeks, Watkins’ market share numbers are up. He saw 20 percent of the team’s air yards and 14 percent of the team’s target while taking the field for 85 percent of Philly’s offensive snaps. He has supplanted Jalen Reagor as their WR2 and his team is an underdog this week which should force them to pass more.
Cordarrelle Patterson Under 43.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Patterson has put together an incredible season so far but this isn’t the spot to back his rushing prop. The Falcons are 8.5-point dogs to the Cowboys and Patterson hasn’t posted notable numbers on the ground in losses. In Atlanta’s four defeats this year, he has averaged 7.3 carries for 33.5 yards. He is one of four against this line in those games.
Geoff Swaim Under 1.5 Receptions (+135)
Swain is coming off back-to-back games with four receptions but it’s likely that he’s been out-producing his usage to a significant degree. The veteran tight end has caught all but one of his targets in the past two weeks and remains behind Anthony Firkser in terms of his role on receiving plays. The latter has run more routes than Swaim over the previous two weeks and the Titans, as three points favorites, should establish a ground game in their contest versus the Saints. Swaim is a committee tight end on a low-volume team which always puts him in play to hit the under at plus money.
Mike Williams to get 100+ Receiving Yards (+300)
Williams’ +300 odds give him a 25 percent chance to clear the century mark. That perfectly reflects his 2-of-8 record at reaching 100 yards this year but he won’t be playing in an average game this week. His contest with the Vikings has a 53.5-point total and both teams pass at an adobe-average rate with the Chargers clocking in at the sixth-highest rate. In a high-scoring, passing bonanza, Williams’ 34 percent share of the Chargers’ air yards will come into full effect, giving him a solid shot at topping this prop.
Last Week: (3-1), +2.2 units
Season: 19-25, -7.6 units