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On October 3rd, he asked me what day it was...
Back on the wagon, or is it “off the wagon?” Either way it was a nice weekend, but honestly should have been better with a couple rob-jobs. I’m hitting a few looks this evening for the Monday Nighter. Let’s roll.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (-1.5) | Over/Under 42.5
Rewind the clock to last season for a second. I was eyeing up this exact matchup… on Monday night (Week 10). Because of my preseason Rams Super Bowl ticket, I was riding RAMS HOUSE to my grave, which clearly was a flop. Is tonight finally the time where LA snaps a six-game losing streak to the 49ers?
LAR has not won in the Bay Area since the day before I turned 25 (10/21/2018). I have almost lived a full life since then. Quite simply put, the ever-so arrogant Kyle Shanahan has had the decisive edge against Sean McVay in the battle of frat bro head coaches. The main reason why the 49ers have been so successful is because they can tote the rock like 2000 Ravens. In the last six regular season contests, the Niners have run the ball at least 30 times in five of them. Not only does that wear down the LA defense over the course of the game, but it also eats up the clock and shrinks the possession for the Rams. In five of those six contests, San Fran managed to chew up at least 34 minutes of time of possession. For LA to buck the trend, they need to create some semblance of a consistent ground game, something that has been largely difficult. If they can manage to do that, and stay out of down and distances, there is no reason they cannot effectively move the ball and score at a solid clip.
Much has been made of this trend between these two teams. And the 49ers especially are a bit different than even last year. Their strength, mainly in the ground game, has been their offensive line play and now missing maybe the best LT in football in Trent Williams puts a big dent in that. SF will likely need to run more pulling guards and run chipping backs/tight ends/wide receivers to alleviate some of the expected pressure Jimmy G is set to face. We know Cooper Kupp is going to get his, but historically when San Fran has kept the Rams pass heavy and in 3rd and long situations, they have not fared well.
Officially I am not playing either side tonight. First reason is because I don’t want to bet against the Rams. Secondly, I just can’t back Jimmy G the medigon who can’t even pronounce “Gabagool” or “Mootzadell” in his Subway commercials. We know he would be bagging groceries if he wasn’t as handsome as he is. And lastly, I don’t feel as confident as I did a few days ago. With LAR getting cracked with a ton of public love, I ultimately would go to the 49ers to win their seventh straight game. They just matchup too well.
Lean (Unofficial): 49ers cover (-1.5)
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Player Props:
Cooper Kupp O8.5 catches +130
Cooper Kupp O90.5 yards -130
Maybe a tad overzealous last week against ARZ since after all the Cardinals have actually been the only team in the NFL to consistently contain Kupp Daddy the last couple seasons (three games with 65 yards or less). That said, Kupp still has posted two games with 10+ grabs and 100+ yards, so I’m not overly concerned. Even against a good defense in San Fran, Cooper “Fill Up My” Kupp ransacked this unit last season. In all three games (including postseason), he Caught 29 of 34 passes for 382 yards and 3 scores, while registering 7+ catches AND 100+ yards in every contest. You know the drill, we always back his props. EXTREME butter.
Side Note: I managed to find his 90.5 yardage total at ONE book.
Deebo Samuel Anytime TD +135
There are not many more players in the NFL that’s as much of an anomaly as Deebo Samuel. He plays a unique role in an offense that cannot seem to consistently place him. It’s been a bit of a slow start for Samuel, but his production and involvement has been picking up. With only one total score thus far, tonight should be the spot where he gets back in the end zone. With three straight tuddies scored against the Rams, he is live to find paydirt once more. Because of his versatility, he not only causes matchup issues, but has multiple ways to score which makes his price too good to not dabble in.
Summary:
Lean (Unofficial): 49ers cover (-1.5)
Cooper Kupp O8.5 catches +130
Cooper Kupp O90.5 yards -130
Deebo Samuel Anytime TD +135
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