Skip navigation
Favorites
Sign up to follow your favorites on all your devices.
Sign up
View All Scores

NFL Best Bets: Introducing The Royal Mint

Tyler Lockett

Tyler Lockett

Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports

It’s NFL season and that means you’ve got a chance at $100,000 with Sunday Night 7. Predict what will happen on Sunday Night Football and watch along to see if you’ll be the next big winner. Click here to get started with the NBC Sports Predictor app.

Trying to beat NFL lines, especially later in the week, is incredibly difficult - this year even more so than others. Not to mention, the deeper we get into the season, the lines and edges become so razor-thin that the ball’s slightest lucky/unlucky bounce can mean the difference between winning and losing. If you could find one spot that you automatically play every time it avails itself - that hits 87% - wouldn’t you want to at least know what it is?

Most of the people that follow me or know me should be aware of the one trend no bettor should ever forego. I hammer it home any and every chance I get imploring others to join me. The ROAD DOG getting 5 or 5.5 points is always a smash spot for me. While it doesn’t always come home, it usually hits more times than not. I have since dubbed this play ‘The Royal Mint.’

The App is Back! Don’t forget to download the NBC Sports EDGE app to receive real-time player news, mobile alerts and track your favorite players. Plus, now you can check out articles and player cards. Get it here!

I can’t take full credit for this play. While I created the name and have kept track of all the previous results in this spot, it was not me who brought this trend to light. Without revealing this person’s name, all I can say is the typical thing you would expect me to say… “I got a guy.” And this guy (or girl), put me on to what is now ‘The Royal Mint’ about four or five years ago. And this knowledge that I have gained, I try to pass along to bettors as much as I can.

Now you might ask, what is so special about the road dog getting 5 or 5.5 points? It’s not a key number. It doesn’t have anything to do with gameplay. While this is true, it has become a key BETTING number (not a football game number). The reason is Vegas has always had a tough time handicapping this for whatever reason. Maybe because It’s so close to a touchdown (a key number), but not enough for the team to get six points, but also the margin is too significant for that road team to only be getting 3 or 3.5. Whatever the reason is, it has worked like a charm.

Since the start of 2021, teams in this spot are 13-2 SU (+9.82 units); 10-4-1 ATS (+15.16 units). In 2022 those teams are 4-1 ATS/SU with Seattle being the only one not to deliver against the Saints. But that game in all fairness was one of the worst officiating games I have ever seen, and the Seahawks realistically should have at least covered if not won. Speaking of, they have seen this line a lot lately. Having just won and covered this spot in Week 7 vs LAC, they are now 3-1 ATS/SU in The Royal Mint since ’21. Going through the last five years, this look is 28-17 ATS (+8.45 units); 18-25-2 (+10.69 units) since 2018. And checking back the last 10 seasons, we are seeing a 61-35 ATS mark (+20.45 units) with a 38-56-2 SU output (+22.19 units). Throughout numerous articles and appearances, I have referred to this metric. Some people have caught on to what I have been saying to them. You may not understand it or even agree with it. But nobody can argue with the results. And I have yet to hear anybody else in this business reveal what I have bestowed on to you… again.

Remember, when in doubt, ALWAYS take the ROAD DOG getting 5 or 5.5 points. And think of JohnnyVTV when you play The Royal Mint.

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.