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Week 5 Bets: Eagles continue to fly

Jalen Hurts

Jalen Hurts

Armond Feffer/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

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HUGE WEEK. That’s how you dish out a big boy bounce back! The triple dip with Kupp Daddy and Deebo was just a crazy concoction of butter, fire, and gasoline. Basically, like buying GameStop at $14 dollars before it went TO THE MOON (I like the stock!). Anyway, there are a ton of dripping matchups that I need to crush, so let’s hop into it.

*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.

Seattle Seahawks @ New Orleans Saints (-5.5) | Over/Under 46.5

I have just accepted the fact that I am a huge bird of prey guy. Highlighting last week, Seattle won a thriller (that should not have been a thriller), while New Orleans dropped a heartbreaker. It’s a tough scene right now for a 1-3 Saints team that I had marching deep into the postseason in 2022. The real question is, “When will the Saints turn the tide?”

Prior to Week 5, JV RIPPED a Geno Smith CPOY ticket (+2000), so now I’m a low-key Seahawks fan for the remainder of the regular season. Seattle FINALLY committed to the ground game last week with Rashaad “Worth Much More Than A '' Penny slicing up that Lions defense for 151 yards and two tuddies on 17 totes. While he did sit out Wednesday’s practice with a shoulder injury, there is no reason to worry yet that his status is in danger. It’s probably just from lifting up the whole weight of the damn team. Seattle should stick to the formula of keeping a run first attack against a surprisingly down NOLA run defense (124.8 YPG) with Penny and the rookie Ken Walker. They need to keep the run so they can continue thriving in the play-action which Geno has accounted for the seventh most pass yards (285) and fifth most attempts (34) from. With a fantastic scheme that has heavily involved their tight ends and created great matchups for their WR’s (Tyler Lockett and Papa DK Metcalf) to win, Seattle can take advantage of some of the weaknesses of the defense. While New Orleans hasn’t been bad on that side of the rock, it certainly is far from what we are accustomed to seeing across the board with limited takeaways, points allowed etc. If Geno can stay upright, as he has (6 sacks), then the Seahawks could be good for at least 24 points.

It’s been a tough one for NOLA. The key injuries have piled up with Jameis Winston, Michael Thomas, and Alvin Kamara. Luckily, it initially seems like Kamara could be available for Sunday’s tilt. Since Andy Dalton was serviceable in place of Jamo (236 yards and a score), it could be enough for this team to stay afloat. Dalton had some nice zip on his passes against the Vikings, and the fact the WR Chris Olave (My OROY) has been pumping, the offense should not be at a total loss on Sunday. With or without Kamara, it would surprise me to see the Saints to stay under 23 points, especially considering they are facing the league’s second worst overall (428 YPG) and scoring defense (28.8 PPG). However, the presence of Kamara could create major headaches with his pass catching ability since Seattle allows the fifth most catches and yards to running backs.

This shouldn’t even have to be said, but if you noticed what the spread was then alarm bells should be going off. The automatic smash spot of the road dog getting 5 or 5.5 once again rears itself early in the season. I’m clearly on Seattle for not only that reason, but I think the matchup provides room for them to grab at least 24 points. The Seahawks are certainly live to pull off the upset. One thing, I may change my handicap depending on the status of Penny, so stay tuned.

Prediction: Seahawks cover (+5.5)

Philadelphia Eagles (-5) @ Arizona Cardinals | Over/Under 49

As Larry David would say about the Eagles, “They are pretttty pretttty good. That can also be applied to the fazools I’ve been making off them as well. This Philly team still is a bit of a mirage in my opinion. Even though they are good, they are nowhere near as good as people think. With that being said, Christmas came early for them in the form of the easiest schedule in the NFL. That being said, the last time the Eagles started 4-0 was back in 2004 when they went to the Super Bowl. How long can the Eagles keep this gravy train rolling?

Everybody wants to know when Philly will finally fall. People usually want to be the first one on the train that in a situation like this, bettors are hitting the Cardinals to try and predict it as the pressure of an undefeated record continues to compound. The fact is, the Eagles have played two steps ahead of any team in the NFL this season.

They do everything well that Cardinals do poorly. Philly can air the ball out if they choose against one of the worst secondaries in the NFL. Zona has a good run defense on paper (5th best- 87 YPG), but it is not truly indicative of their talent. They have yet to see a team like Philly who averages over 165 YPG on the ground with the threat of multiple ball carriers. With Jalen Hurts looking like a true MVP candidate (not something I thought I would say) after a rough year as a passer, we should see him hook up with DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and AJ Brown a ton against this Cards’ defense that allows the 10th most pass yards in the NFL (255.8 YPG). With Philly scoring the fourth most points in the NFL (28.8 PPG), they should be able to shred their opposing defense who gives up the fifth most points (25.8 PPG). The Eagles defense should be able to pin their ears back and get after the QB with their league leading 16 sacks, and 10 takeaways.

It’s now my fourth straight week involving the Arizona Cardinals in my card. And you already know it’s because there is nobody in the entire business that has a better read on them than I do. This week my reasoning isn’t an exact science. Quite frankly, they cannot run the ball outside of Kyler Murray scrambling around. Hollywood Brown is their only passing weapon. Their defense stinks out loud. And if it wasn’t for a miraculous comeback against the Raiders, Kliff Kingsbury would have been out as the head coach. Facing one of the top defenses in every metric and stat, it just seems like a no go.

And for what it’s worth, Zona is only 3-7 SU; 2-8 ATS at home since the start of 2021, while having failed to win or cover in seven straight spots. I totally understand that trends have to buck at some point, but I see no reason to support this team in this game. The only one I could maybeeee see is that the Eagles could be in a look ahead spot with a huge primetime game vs. Dallas (on SNF) looming next week, but even that wouldn’t be enough to back the Cardinals.

I played this game -5 on Monday and am considering hitting it later in the week depending on the line movement. It is noteworthy that Philly could be without their LT Jordan Mailata, RG Isaac Seumalo, and K Jake Elliott, but my Nick Sirianni COY ticket and I would still think the team will make adjustments. The Eagles should still drop a 30 bean in a comfortable win.

Prediction: Eagles win and cover (-5)

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Dallas Cowboys @ Los Angeles Rams (-5.5) | Over/Under 43.5

The last time I backed the Cowboys was *checks calendar* never. Actually, I don’t exactly remember, but it’s not been a team I have played or backed in quite a while. And going against the team that won me mad bread last year? This is a crazy scenario. Does Dallas have what it takes to not only cover, but win outright?

There were many - not mentioning any names - that were all over the Rams on MNF against the 49ers (you know who you are). While I did not officially list the play on that game, I did ultimately go with the 49ers out of pure objectivity. That game exposed a ton of flaws that the Rams have like horrendous offensive line play, almost no running game, and the lack of inclusion of any player not named Cooper Kupp. Defensively, they weren’t terrible, but they were still bad. Failing to get off the field on third down, being able to get to the QB, and atrocious tackling won’t bring smiles to any defensive coordinator. Of course, the 49ers have always had their number, and they won’t face too many teams like that, but it provides a blueprint on how to beat them.

Dallas however is something of a carbon copy to San Fran in many ways. They have a captain of ship type at QB with the now 4-0 SU/ATS Cooper Rush starting, a strong running game, good WR’s, and a top tier defense. Given their aggressive defense and pressure (15 sacks -2nd most in NFL), it could spell problems once again for this LA team that let Matthew Stafford take a beating (sacked seven times). For what it’s worth Stafford has now failed to throw a TD pass in back-to-back games for the first time since Weeks 15 and 16 of 2016. Sean McVay needs to draw up a better scheme that helps his QB get the ball out of his hands quickly, or it will be another long day. I think it is a little premature to panic on LAR, but they absolutely need to kick it in high gear on Sunday. For this offense that is 26th in DVOA, they need to definitely have a better sense of urgency than their 28.14 seconds per play (19th).

Given how the Rams bounce back from a loss (18-7 SU) under McVay, it’s a fair thought for me to support them winning outright. When it comes to the spread, ALARM BELLS. We have a second team this week in the money size, so I will no doubt be hitting the Cowboys. Big time Rush should be 5-0 ATS a starter come Sunday night.

Prediction: Cowboys cover (+5.5)

Teaser:

The Teasers have been SO GAS for the first month of the year. Let’s keep it going.

Cowboys +11.5 (Originally +5.5)

Let’s keep it short and sweet. Two plays I like outright, so why wouldn’t I add a full six points to them? Dallas should be able to move the ball and eat up clock, while limiting the Rams to a less than stellar offensive day. LAR is sure to make adjustments, but I don’t think they will surpass 26 points.

Seahawks +11.5 (Originally +5.5)

If the Saints are once again without Jameis Winston and Michael Thomas, it limits their vertical passing game. Seattle’s defense isn’t good, but if the threat of big plays through the air are limited, it might condense the field. If Alvin Kamara misses, then it’s really a matchup nightmare for NOLA. The Hawks have enough weapons to challenge a defense that has not performed up to par.

Survivor Pick:

We’re back on the gravy train with the survivor picks after thinking “Letting Russ Cook” was a good idea back in the MNF opener. We hit the Packers in an extremely close call last Sunday. This week we will be hitting the Bills vs. the Steelers. Remember, it’s all about… SURVIVING.

Summary:

Seahawks +5.5 (-107)

Cowboys +5.5 (-110)

Eagles -5 (-107)

Teaser: Seahawks 11.5/Cowboys +11.5 (-120)

Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.