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This week I was informed I am a casualty of the big budget cuts here at NBC Sports. Having started out as a 22-year-old in Ad Sales, I couldn’t be prouder of the growth and opportunities I have had along the way. I worked with some unbelievable people that taught me how to be great. It has been a true pleasure bringing The Weekly Taste to all of you, and I truly hope you enjoyed it as much as I love writing it. That being said, I’m still doing my thing here until 1/13/22, so don’t worry about me! Week 10 is the best slate I’ve seen in a while, and it might be the best all season. Looking forward to hammering a ton of plays this week. Time to really catch fire. Let’s get it.
*Note: You have heard me say shopping around is pivotal, especially in futures betting, so make sure you look to see what book is offering the more favorable odds.
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Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3) | Over/Under 44.5
I would like to point out that I have been on the wrong side of every game involving the Tampa Bay Buccaneers since Week 2. I probably should not even play this game to be honest, but it involves my darling Seahawks, so this is a tough one to lay off, so I won’t. Tampa Bay is completely useless on American soil this year, but they figure going to Germany might fix all of their problems. Will it, though?
Seattle has been a wrecking ball in 2022. I’m so involved with them in a bunch of ways (no, get your head out of the gutter). For the 1000th time, I have my guy Geno Smith for CPOY, Pete Carroll for COY, to win the division, and to now win the Super Bowl (lol, I know). I didn’t take the Ken Walker OROY plunge because it was too late by the time I would have grabbed it, and so much had to happen for him to be in the position he is. Plus, I love Chris Olave for the award, my preseason pick.
Anyway, the Hawks have won ballgames in a variety of ways, which is why they have a great chance to upset the Bucs on Sunday as they go for their fifth W in a row. I would expect the ground game to continue to be a pivotal focus for a Seattle team that is top 10 in running this year while they go up against a Bucs defense that is bottom 10. Even though the Bucs’ pass defense ranks as an elite unit (5th best - 187.8 YPG), it has played either a bunch of heavy run teams, or units that have weak receiver play. The only truly good offense it has faced this year outside of maybe the Ravens was the Chiefs, where they let up a 40 bean. This will be a good test for Tampa Bay to see if it can shut down the best WR duo it’s seen seen this year in Tyler Lockett and Papa DK Metcalf.
The Bucs look lost right now. At the end of the year we may look back at the game they won last week against the Rams and say that saved their season. They don’t block, run the ball, play great defense, and Tom Brady is out of sync with the pass catchers. It’s truly a mess. On paper, Tampa Bay should wipe the floor with Seattle, but that’s what we have been saying all season. The Seahawks’ key flaw on defense is the ground game, but the Bucs probably won’t be able to capitalize on that. They have to deal with Richard Sherman 2.0 in the budding superstar CB Tariq Woolen and company. And while the Bucs are third in the NFL in sacks (29th), they lost star pass rusher in Shaq Barrett, crippling their key piece on the line. Then the question also becomes if they can protect Tom Brady from the team who has the fourth most sacks in the NFL.
Yet again, Seattle is the public side. But yet again, I think if there is one public side that wins this week, it is Seattle. If it feels like I have been saying that for about two months straight, it’s probably because I have. Not to mention, the public has done well as of late along with the underdogs. A lot of the matchups in my opinion favor the Hawks, and the weaknesses they do have, it’s very possible the Bucs can’t exploit them. At the end of the day though, you’re giving me a 6-3 team getting a field goal against a 4-5 team who is playing a “home game” in Germany? I’m riding Seattle for the seventh straight week, and I think it probably wins outright.
Side Note: Should Tampa lose in Week 10, then the Panthers are only a game back of the NFC South!
Prediction: Seattle covers (+3)
Houston Texans @ New York Giants (-5.5) | Over/Under 41.5
Who could believe I’m throwing a game featuring Houston and “New York” on the slate? Only the real ones know. It’s a Royal Mint spot (road dog getting 5 or 5.5 points). With one team coming off the bye and the other off the mini-bye, should the Giants really be nearly a touchdown favorite against H-Town?
The Texans aren’t very good, granted, but they are a feisty team that can give opponents a lot of headaches. The center of those headaches would be stud rookie RB Dameon Pierce, one of the premier fantasy steals in drafts over the last few years. Fresh off a 27 carry, 139-yard outing against the Eagles, Dame is now sixth in the NFL in rushing yards (678), while his 51 missed tackles are good for third in the league. If there is one area this NYG defense is susceptible, it’s on the ground (137.3 YPG- 8th worst). Despite the paltry 1-6-1 record for Houston, it actually holds a solid 4-3-1 ATS record this year. While Davis Mills can’t help that his neck looks like he was birthed by a giraffe, maybe he can help by avoiding the plaguing turnovers. With his eight picks in the last six contests, it’s extremely difficult for this team to win without his costly mistakes. In fact, Mills has three games with zero picks, and the Texans only lost one of them … seems correlated to me. On defense though, they must do what they can to slow down Saquon Barkley and the run game.
Though I am a Barkley fan, he needs to chill before he gets ideas of stealing my guy Geno Smith‘s rightful ownership of the CPOY award. Saquon has a meaty 110 carries over the last five contests, which is a clear indication that they will continue to feed number 26 against the league’s worst run defense (180.6 YPG). Should Houston at least contain him the way Seattle did in Week 8 (20 totes for 53 yards), it should have a great shot at winning. With the G-Men having scored 24 or less points in all but one game this season, it’s a good spot for Houston to at the very least cover should they manage 20 points.
Right now at BetMGM, there isn’t a crazy Pro vs. Joe split with a ton of public action, but it’s clear the Texans are the sharper side. If you couldn’t guess why I would go with Houston, it should be obvious. Unless you’re the current Colts, I don’t ever fade road dogs getting 5 or 5.5 points, so I am a big Texans fan on Sunday. It wouldn’t surprise me if they pull the outright win.
Prediction: Houston covers (+5.5)
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills (-7) | Over/Under 44.5
Bro, what a mess this thing has been all week. Opened at 7.5, down to 7, then 6.5, 5.5, 3.5, and back to up to 6.5 or 7 in some spots. Obviously all this action is centered around Josh Allen’s status regarding his elbow. I’m not surprised Allen is going to “probably” give it a go. This is almost identical to what happened with the Jags-Chargers earlier in the season. Everybody thought Justin Herbert would miss, only for him to gut it out and the Bolts got mopped off the field. Does a limited Allen still prove to be too much for Minny?
Here’s what I know. The Vikes have been pumping the scoreboard lately. Putting up at least 24 points in four of the last five contests, they have managed to create mismatches for almost every defense they faced (besides the Eagles) whether that was with Dalvin Cook on the ground or Justin Jefferson through the air. Enter TE TJ Hockenson, one of the toughest players to defend at the position. Minny has at least three skill guys at different positions that can cause problems for any defense. On paper the defensive side of the ball for Buffalo ranks great in all of the main facets, but now factor in most of their secondary are backups, and DL Greg Rousseau is out. The key issue now is the possibility that this turns out to be a brutal weather game with wind gusts from 20-30 MPH that features a wintry mix of precipitation. Ordinarily, Minnesota would be good for at least 24 points. If that weather holds, I think given their strong run game prowess, they can still manage to grab 20 points.
I can’t get this Justin Herbert situation out of my head for Josh Allen. BUF is now a big favorite again, and people think the Bills are a lock because their QB1 seems to be playing. Bold strategy, Cotton. With or without the weather elements, I think Buffalo might have a tough time running the ball, outside of maybe Allen. Devin Singletary has been solid this year, but not somebody I think is an X factor that takes over the game. The big weakness is Minny’s pass defense, easily one of the worst in the NFL (256.9 YPG - 6th worst). However, if Allen can’t throw like usual, or the weather plays too much of a factor, then their game plan is totally flipped. What I will be watching for Buffalo is how Allen responds to letting it fly. If he has just a UCL sprain then he is probably fine to play, but given what kind of power and velocity he throws the ball with, it’s probably not impossible for him to tear that ligament, which would most likely force him to have Tommy John and be out for a year. This is definitely something to monitor.
I’m keeping this simple. I said before I heard anything about Allen’s injury rumblings that I liked the Vikings to win outright … and I still do. I don’t think the Bills end up exploiting the weaknesses of Minnesota. The Vikings should at the bare minimum cover the spread. But I think they win outright.
Prediction: Minnesota covers (+7) and wins (+240)
Survivor Pick:
Chiefs were a success last week… barely. Let’s get wild this week and go Raiders!
Teaser: Week 9 was another teaser smash. Let’s go again!
Texans +11.5 (Originally +5.5)
The Royal Mint spot is usually a prime indicator of a team not only almost covering, but winning outright. It’s double digits for a Texans’ team that can run the rock and control clock. I love this teaser spot.
Vikings +13 (Originally +7)
A projected horrible weather game. A team that can run the ball. A team getting almost two touchdowns?!? I had to do it. I think the Vikings win this game, but if they don’t I doubt they lose by more than a touchdown in this contest. Any time you can have two teams getting double digits when they are both live for the money line W, you take them.
Summary:
Seahawks +3 (-110)
Texans +5.5 (-115)
Vikings +7 (-110)
Vikings ML (+240)
Teaser: Texans +11.5/Vikings +13 (-120)
Survivor: Raiders
Fantasy football guru Matthew Berry has joined the team and his two shows have you covered all season long. Spend weekdays at noon with the Fantasy Football Happy Hour and then, every Sunday at 11am getting ready for kickoff with the Fantasy Football Pregame. Watch both shows live on Peacock and catch replays for the weekday show on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel.