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Only five weeks remain in the NFL regular season and the battle for playoff positioning has heated up. Week 13 features 13 games, from the Thursday night game between two NFC playoff contenders to the Monday matchup that will help decide the AFC East division. I spoke to PointsBet Sportsbook analyst Michael Korn to get the betting splits and other insights about the biggest line moves for Week 13 spread in the NFL.
| Team | Open | Current | Bet Count % | Handle % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | -5 | -4 | 76 | 88 |
| New Orleans Saints | ||||
| Minnesota Vikings | -6.5 | -7 | 78 | 57 |
| Detroit Lions | ||||
| Los Angeles Chargers | ||||
| Cincinnati Bengals | -2.5 | -3 | 72 | 82 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -9.5 | -11 | 77 | 66 |
| Atlanta Falcons | ||||
| Arizona Cardinals | -7 | -7.5 | 73 | 91 |
| Chicago Bears | ||||
| New York Giants | ||||
| Miami Dolphins | -2.5 | -5 | 72 | 56 |
| Indianapolis Colts | -7.5 | -8 | 87 | 88 |
| Houston Texans | ||||
| Philadelphia Eagles | -7 | -6.5 | 71 | |
| New York Jets | 53 | |||
| Jacksonville Jaguars | ||||
| Los Angeles Rams | -13.5 | -12.5 | 61 | 78 |
| Washington Football Team | ||||
| Las Vegas Raiders | -2.5 | -2.5 | 76 | 78 |
| Baltimore Ravens | -2.5 | -4.5 | 74 | 64 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | ||||
| Denver Broncos | 67 | 68 | ||
| Kansas City Chiefs | -9.5 | -9.5 | ||
| New England Patriots | 68 | 89 | ||
| Buffalo Bills | -3 | -2.5 |
Week 13 begins on Thursday night with an NFC matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and the New Orleans Saints. This line already moved off the opener of Cowboys -5 up to -5.5 before dropping back down to Cowboys -4. Korn thinks this could be buy-back from the spread getting up to +5.5, but the vast majority of the handle is on Dallas for Thursday’s game.
To kick off the 1:00 pm ET slate on Sunday, the Minnesota Vikings will look to gain ground in the NFC playoff race with a win over a divisional foe. The Vikings drew plenty of bets already this week despite losing running back Dalvin Cook to an injury last week. The spread opened at -6.5 but Minnesota is now favored by a touchdown over the Detroit Lions with 78% of early bets on the Vikings.
Another heavily-backed team early this week is the Cincinnati Bengals. With 82% of the money on the Bengals, Cincinnati’s spread against the Los Angeles Chargers shifted from -2.5 to -3 at PointsBet Sportsbook, a significant move to a key number.
The NFC South divisional matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Atlanta Falcons already moved this week, and bettors are backing Tom Brady to cover. PointsBet Sportsbook opened this game at -9.5 and moved to -11 in favor of the Bucs. Brady is also still listed as the MVP favorite at PointsBet Sportsbook with odds of +250.
The most lopsided handle of any game this week is on the Arizona Cardinals on the road against the Chicago Bears. Over 91% of the handle favors the Cardinals to cover the spread as the line shifted from -7 to -7.5.
“7 to 7.5 is a big move but with so much liability early in the week it made sense to get ahead of it, especially with the market going that way,” Korn said.
With Kyler Murray expected to return from injury in Week 13, there could be value in targeting Arizona for futures bets. You can get the Cardinals at +850 to win the Super Bowl on PointsBet Sportsbook, compared to +800 at DraftKings and FanDuel.
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The Dolphins opened as -2.5 favorites against the New York Giants and moved up to -3 on Tuesday morning. With the news that Daniel Jones is expected to miss this game with a neck injury and Mike Glennon expected to make his first start of the season, the line shifted further and currently sits at Dolphins -5. Korn expects to continue taking heavy action on Miami, especially with the Dolphins entering this week on a four-game win streak.
The Philadelphia Eagles lost to the Giants last week but the majority of bettors expect them to bounce back against the other New York team, with 71% of the bet count on the Eagles. The handle is in favor of the Jets early this week, and the two-way action led to a drop from -7 to -6.5. If the splits stay similar and New York continues to get over half of the handle, Korn thinks the line would likely stick at 6.5 or even drop further towards the Jets. With Philadelphia quarterback Jalen Hurts questionable, there is potential for an even bigger line move, but it’s unlikely that it passes through any key numbers.
“If Hurts is out it would probably drop down to 6 or maybe 5.5 but I don’t think we’ll see a jump down to 3.5, since those numbers aren’t as important as the move down to 3.5,” Korn said.
The Los Angeles Rams will play the Jacksonville Jaguars to begin the 4:00 p.m. ET slate after losing each of the last three games, but still received the majority of action so far.
“If the Rams weren’t coming off three losses this would be a game with 80-plus % on the bet count and handle,” Korn said. “The handle being at 61 is low for this kind of game.”
Even with a heavy majority of the handle on the Las Vegas Raiders, the spread still hasn’t moved from -2.5 over the Washington Football Team. Korn noted that 1:00 p.m. ET games typically attract far more action early in the week than late-afternoon games among public bettors, which could be why PointsBet is holding steady at -2.5.
“These numbers sound like we’ll move up to -3 but it’s not an overwhelming amount of money on this game yet so I wouldn’t be surprised if the splits stable out and come back closer to the 50 mark,” Korn said.
The Sunday Night Football matchup features surprising splits for the AFC West battle. The Kansas City Chiefs, typically among the most heavily-bet teams in the NFL, received under a third of the bet count and handle at PointsBet Sportsbook against the Denver Broncos. Kansas City’s odds to win the AFC reached an apex at +900 on Oct. 24 before the Chiefs regained their status as AFC favorites.
“People saw the Broncos beat the Chargers while the Chiefs were on a bye, and since people didn’t see the Chiefs play last week they don’t have that recency bias in their head so that’s why I think this is leaning Broncos so much,” Korn said. “People lost trust in the Chiefs early this season and it’s coming back, but it still isn’t the same as it was in the beginning of the year.”
The matchup of the week is the Monday Night Football showdown between the two AFC East favorites in the New England Patriots and the Buffalo Bills. Despite being the last game on the slate, this is one of the most heavily-bet Week 13 spreads so far. PointsBet Sportsbook opened the spread at Bills -3 and moved down to -2.5 as the hype continues to grow around the Patriots. New England enters Week 13 on a six-game win streak and a whopping 89% of the handle favors the Pats to extend that streak, or at least cover the spread.
“That’s a huge move,” Korn said. “We don’t move it from -3 to -2.5 lightly, especially on a Monday night divisional game like that, but there’s heavy action on the Patriots.”
Even more overwhelming is the Patriots support by bettors for futures markets. At PointsBet Sportsbook, New England received three-times as many bets as the Bills to win the division with over double the handle of Buffalo. Even with so much support for New England, the Bills still lead the AFC East division odds. PointsBet lists Buffalo at -125, better than FanDuel’s -130 and the -140 price at DraftKings.
Quarterback Mac Jones moved up to the odds-on favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year, and Inpredictable’s market-derived team ratings ranks the Patriots as the league’s fourth-best team, so betting markets are starting to adjust to all of the liability on New England.
Wow, that Patriots are up to No. 4 in this! pic.twitter.com/9MAewO6Mlp
— Computer Cowboy (@benbbaldwin) December 1, 2021
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