Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for the NFL Conference Championship Weekend between the Chiefs at the Ravens, and the 49ers hosting the Lions.
Lamar Jackson O/U 1.5 Passing TDs vs. Chiefs
Lamar Jackson accounted for four touchdowns last week versus Houston (2 pass, 2 rush) and continues to live up to the MVP hype.
Jackson has now thrown for at least two touchdowns in three straight starts and four of the past five. Mark Andrews returns for Baltimore at the tight end position, so we should expect plenty of two tight-end sets with Andrews and Isaiah Likely to set up this Ravens offense for success through the air and on the ground.
When Andrews has played this year, Jackson has thrown for at least two touchdowns in four out of 10 games (40%) and at least one touchdown pass in seven of 10 (70%).
Per PlayerProfiler, Jackson is ranked 2nd in money throws (30), 4th in red zone completion percentage (66.2%) and 9th in red zone accuracy (6.8) this year. Jackson is having his best season as a passer and when you play Mahomes and the Chiefs in the postseason, you have to keep your foot on the gas and go for touchdowns rather than field goals.
I ran it back on Jackson Over 1.5 Passing TDs at +146 odds on FanDuel and would play it at the current +135 or +140 on DraftKings and BetMGM down to +120.
Pick: Lamar Jackson Over 1.5 Passing TDs (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Chiefs at Ravens (-4): O/U 44.5
Patrick Mahomes has played 14 combined playoff games during the Wild Card, Divisional, and Conference Championship rounds -- 13 of those contests came at home.
This will be Mahomes’ first AFC Championship game on the road in his career and first back-to-back road playoff games as well.
Not an ideal spot for Mahomes and Kansas City, so I do like Baltimore to get out to an early lead, which they do well historically.
Baltimore is 14-4 ATS this season in the first half and failed to cover the first-half spread last week versus Houston. However, that was following a bye week and for some players, two weeks off, so I like this spot for the Ravens.
I played the Ravens 1H spread of -2.5 at -130 odds on FanDuel. DraftKings has this at -3.5, but you can go to the alternate 1H spreads and find the -2.5 for -134 odds. BetMGM has -3 for -110 odds.
Pick: Ravens 1H -2.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Jared Goff O/U 255.5 Passing Yards vs. 49ers
We are 2-0 on the Over to Jared Goff’s Passing Yards in the postseason and will run it back against the 49ers as the sportsbooks continue to drop this prop.
After hitting 255.5 yards on FanDuel and ranging up to 260.5 at most places with plenty of fluctuation, this prop line doesn’t make much sense to me. In what should seem like a more negative game script than the past two weeks, Goff’s passing yards continue to decline as people expect the 49ers to shut down the Lions.
We know that Dan Campbell and Detroit are one of the most aggressive teams in the NFL and with that, there will be trickery, flea-flickers, reversers, deep shots, and fourth-down attempts. With Goff, sure there could be a turnover or two, but that only helps a negative game script, so he has to throw more often.
Goff’s pass attempts prop is set at 35.5 and doing some digging, when Goff has thrown at least 36 times, he’s gone Over 255.5 passing yards in six out of six games (100%). When he’s tossed at least 32 passes, Goff has hit the Over 255.5 passing yards in 11 out of 16 (68.7%).
Goff recorded at least 257 passing yards in six straight games. Give me Goff Over 255.5 Passing Yards at -114 odds up to 260.5. Shop around for the best number as this prop keeps moving.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 255.5 Passing Yards (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 71-45-1 (62.1%) +17.18u
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