Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Round 2 between the Giants at Cowboys, plus the 49ers at Jaguars as both teams come off bye weeks.
Giants at Cowboys (-17.5): O/U 38.5
Dallas is coming off a loss and laying 17 points as a home favorite and while I won’t talk anyone off the spread, I will ride with a first half bet.
The Giants scored 14 or fewer points in four straight games and six of the past seven contests, including last week when New York was destroyed, 30-6, in Las Vegas. New York did not score in the first half at Las Vegas and managed only three points versus the Jets the previous week.
Tommy DeVito and Matt Barkley are the only two quarterbacks on the Giants’ roster and neither stands a chance at Dallas. DeVito went 15-of-20 (75%) against the Raiders for 175 yards, one touchdown, two interceptions and six sacks taken. DeVito also posted a 3.6 QBR.
New York has scored on 18.9% of its offensive possessions and reached third down 58.4% of the time, both rank last in the NFL. I believe the Giants struggle out the gate, and while it couldn’t get worse than the 40-0 win for Dallas over New York earlier this season, it very well could.
I played the Giants 1H Team Total Under 3.5 at -125 odds and would play 2.5 for +110 or better and only a half-unit. This is an easy second-half hedge if we are to lose, but I have no faith in DeVito and the 1Q Team Total Under 0.5 is -200 or -250 at most shops.
Pick: Giants 1H Team Total Under 3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
49ers (-3) at Jaguars: O/U 45.5
Both the Jacksonville Jaguars and San Francisco 49ers are coming off a bye week, which means both teams had the extra time to prepare and break down one another’s film and get healthier, so you know where I’m going with this.
We’re going Under 44.5 between the 49ers and Jags. Both teams with extra prep should have solid scripts and game plans for each other, plus we’re talking about two of the best offensive rushing attacks and overall defenses.
San Francisco enters this contest having lost three straight games and scoring 17 points in all three losses. The 49ers permitted 19, 22, and 31 points in that span.
Having the bye week and being on the East Coast helps the 49ers, which is why we see a -3 to -3.5 favorite tag. On the other sideline, Jacksonville has won five consecutive games and held four out of five teams to 20 or fewer points.
Six out of eight opponents have scored 21 or fewer points versus Jacksonville this season and six posted 22 or fewer points against the 49ers. I like the Under 45.5 at -115 odds down to 43.0. Shop around.
Pick: Under 45.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Packers at Steelers (-3): O/U 39.0
The Packers and Steelers meet up for a classic game between two historic franchises but don’t expect an exciting game.
Both offenses reach third-down 53% and 54% of the time this season, ranking second and third worst, plus both QBs Kenny Pickett and Jordan Love are bottom-five in a plethora of areas when blitzed.
Both offenses have struggled to reach 20 points, hitting that mark in four out of eight games each. Green Bay has scored 20 or fewer points in six-straight games and Pittsburgh in four of the past five.
I think we can see turnovers, sacks, and field goals in this matchup, so I played the Under 39.0 at -112 odds and would go down to 37.0. I don’t expect many points.
Pick: Under 39.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 43-22-1 (66.1%) +18.2 units
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