Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his three best bets for the NFL Week 14 slate, including the Ravens hosting the Rams, Jaguars vs Browns, and Jets against the Texans.
Rams at Ravens (-7.5): O/U 40.0
Baltimore has played one game in 24 days and coming off a bye week whereas the L.A. Rams are traveling across the country to play in the rain.
John Harbaugh is 12-3 on the ML following a bye week (80%), while Sean McVay is 6-19-1 ATS (24%) facing a team with extra prep time. The Rams are without Tyler Higbee, Puke Nacua has an AC joint injury he will play through, and multiple defenders are questionable.
It’s going to rain throughout the entirety of this game and that should limit both passing attacks. The Rams have been much better offensively with Kyren Williams in the past eight games (26.4 PPG), and won three straight out of their bye week against the Seahawks, Cardinals, and Browns (90 combined points scored).
This is a step up in competition for the Rams who were on the West Coast for all three of those previous games. Los Angeles played two games on the East Coast this season and lost to the Bengals (19-16) and beat the Colts in OT (29-23).
I don’t expect much from the Rams offense here and the Ravens could have some rust with one game played in 24 days.
I like the Under 40.0 at -110 odds and would go down to 38.0. The Rams have averaged 13.0 points per game in their three road losses this year.
Pick: Under 40.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Jaguars at Browns (-1.5): O/U 36.0
The Browns have allowed a league-low 10.2 points per game at home this season and all five games have gone Under the total. The books set this at 34.5, up from the 30.5 earlier in the week.
Cleveland owns one of the best rush defenses with nearly 25% of opponents’ rush attempts going for 0 or negative yards. That is not ideal for Travis Etienne and backup QB C.J. Beathard who is on call if Trevor Lawrence can’t go. Lawrence injured his ankle six days ago and will try and give it a go, which I don’t have faith in.
This could be Beathard’s first start since Week 17 of 2020, which could be a disaster at Cleveland. The Browns have yet to name Joe Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson as the starting QB ahead of this matchup, but whoever it is should be ineffective.
I played the Under 36.0 at -110 odds and would go down to 34.0. This season, games with 10+ mph winds are 18-5-1 to the under (78.2%) and the Jaguars versus Browns game falls under that. While 10-15 MPH may not be too much of an impact for QBs, it could be for this lackluster bunch.
Pick: Under 36.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Texans (-3) at Jets: O/U 32.5
The Jets and Texans are the lowest total of the week as Zach Wilson is expected to make his return amid rumors of rejecting the starting QB position.
New York has only scored a touchdown on 28.6% of its scores, which is the lowest in the NFL, and by a long shot (42.1%). The Jets have struggled to pass downfield (27th in pass plays of 20+ yards), but also limit opponents through the air with their games combining for 345.9 passing yards per game (31st).
The Jets’ defense should hold C.J. Stroud somewhat in check after he struggled against Denver with a 59.3% completion percentage, his lowest percentage in a month. The Jets defense allows 6.2 yards per pass attempt (2nd), 9.9 yards per completion (4th), and a 62.0% completion rate (8th), so I am not all that confident in the Texans’ offense.
With Zach Wilson back under center, there is a chance the rest of the Jets play harder for him than Tim Boyle, but either way, the offense hasn’t mustered more than 13 points since Week 6 (six games).
Houston has allowed 17 or fewer points in five out of seven wins this year, while New York held three out of four opponents to 16 or less in its four wins.
Give me the Under 33.0 at -110 odds down to the closing line. Both defenses will show up and it’s supposed to rain throughout the game with at least 65% precipitation in all four quarters.
Pick: Under 33.0 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 54-28-1 (65.8%) +21.65 units
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