Vaughn Dalzell breaks down how he’s attacking the NFC North matchup between the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers on Thursday Night Football.
Lions (-1.5) at Packers: O/U 46.0
We have an NFC North clash between the Lions and Packers on Thursday Night Football and I’m going to attack a first-quarter prop in this contest.
The Packers have gotten off to a slow start in the past two games, failing to score any first-quarter points against the Falcons and Saints. Green Bay is still finding its groove with Jordan Love at the helm, but Detroit should be ready, plus aggressive.
Detroit should blitz heavy as Love has completed 43.3% of his passes against the blitz this season (13-of-30), third-worst in the league. Through three games, 58.1% of Green Bay’s drives have reached third down, ranking 28th in the NFL, and 33.8% have resulted in a three-and-long, the worst rate in the league.
The Lions ranked eighth on the road last season with 3.1 first-quarter points per game allowed. This year, Detroit held two of its three opponents scoreless in the first quarter (At Kansas City, Vs. Atlanta).
The last time these two teams met, the Lions ended the Packers playoff hopes and Aaron Rodgers’ career with Green Bay.
With a slow start seeming likely for Green Bay and expected pressure from the gate from Detroit, I will rock with the Packers’ first-quarter team total Under 3.5 at -135 odds because I am feeling spicy.
Pick: Packers 1Q Team Total Under 3.5 (1u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 13-11-1 (54.1%) +2.63 units
Bet the Edge is your source for the day in sports betting. Get all of Jay Croucher and Drew Dinsick’s insight Tuesday through Saturday at 6AM ET right here or wherever you get your podcasts.