Vaughn Dalzell shares how he’s attacking the Thursday Night matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and New Orleans Saints.
Jaguars at Saints (-1): O/U 40.0
New Orleans welcomes Jacksonville to town on a short week for Thursday Night Football, and the Saints have an opportunity for a bounce-back game against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s QB Trevor Lawrence is listed day-to-day for this TNF matchup after injuring his knee in the Week 6 win over the Colts and did not practice on Monday.
Lawrence has not missed an NFL game in three years for Jacksonville and if he is unable to go, then C.J. Beathard will start at QB. Beathard has not started a game since 2020 and appeared in eight games since then throwing for 78 yards on 15 passing attempts and one interception.
The Jags played two straight games in London before coming back home to Jacksonville, and now have a road game on a short week at New Orleans. Tough spot.
New Orleans owns a top-five defense and held 12 of its last 13 regular season opponents to 20 or fewer points. The Saints are tied for second in interceptions (8), allowing the second-lowest completion percentage (55.9%), and the fifth-lowest yards per pass attempt (5.4).
In Jacksonville’s four wins, they scored 23 or more points in all four, but in the two losses this year, the Jags scored 9 and 17 points. The Jags’ Team Total is set at 19.5, which I lean the Under and will take if it reaches 20.5.
However, I am playing into the New Orleans bounce-back spot at home. The Saints should have beaten the Texans last week, but the refs had something against the city of New Orleans (7-83 to 3-29 in penalty yards).
I played the Saints’ ML for -122 odds. I like this bounce-back spot at home for the Saints versus a banged-up QB on a short week with tons of travel involved for the road team. This is a good letdown spot for the Jags who won three straight.
Pick: Saints ML (Risk 1.5u)
*Odds provided by DraftKings
Season Record: 28-15-1 (65.1%) +11.5 units
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