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A full schedule in the NHL on Tuesday night offers bettors many opportunities to find value.
Below you will find a overlays from some of tonight’s games available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING at MONTREAL CANADIENS (Lightning -1.5, -221 ML, OU 5.5)
Tonight’s game at Bell Centre features a rematch of last season’s Stanley Cup Final between the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens.
Much like last year’s Final played out, tonight’s game likely goes to Tampa and in emphatic fashion.
The Lightning have won nine of their last twelve games, including three straight entering Tuesday night’s game in Montreal.
Reigning Conn Smythe Trophy winner Andrei Vasilevskiy is very clearly the best goaltender in the world when he is on his game and based on his recent form there is every reason to think he will deliver tonight.
Vasilevskiy is 4-1 in his last five, with two victories coming in shutout fashion.
During this span, he has stopped 147 of 154 shots against, lowering his season GAA to 2.13 and his SV% to .927.
Montreal is amid a three-game losing streak, something that sums up their season quite well.
EDGE Finder tells us that the Canadiens are 6-13 (-6.56 units) this season following a loss, illustrating their penchant for dropping multiple games in a row.
Based on my projections, Tampa defeats Montreal by at least two goals 50.3% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -101.
When compared to the Lightning’s puck line odds of +125 (implied probability of 44.4%), it becomes clear why this is a wager worth considering.
COLUMBUS BLUE JACKETS at TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS (Maple Leafs -1.5, -261, OU 6)
This play has little to do with the teams involved and much more to do with math.
There is little arguing that the Toronto Maple Leafs are the more likely winners of tonight’s game against the Columbus Blue Jackets at Scotiabank Arena in Toronto.
The Leafs have lost two straight games, however their run of success prior to their recent hiccups have led them to become the darling of the wagering public – and understandably so.
While they are a likely winner of tonight’s game, their puck line odds (-105; implied probability of 51.2%) and moneyline odds (-261; implied probability of 72.3%) are difficult to accept, if for no other reason than we are talking about a hockey game.
The random nature of hockey makes laying $261 to win $100 a sure-fire way to go broke in the long run.
Columbus is by no means a bad team (currently 19th in my power ratings), and while they are not likely to win tonight’s game, the math suggests they are strictly the team to bet if you are looking at things at the macro level.
My projections suggest Columbus wins tonight’s game just 36.2% of the time (+176 odds), but this indicates that their current moneyline odds (+205; implied probability of 32.8%) represent a solid overlay.
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CAROLINA HURRICANES at WINNIPEG JETS (Jets -1.5, -110 ML, OU 5.5)
The Carolina Hurricanes have played their worst hockey of the season over the past two weeks, dropping five of their last seven contests.
While the recent stretch has been far from ideal, the pendulum has seemingly swung too far in the opposite direction when viewing the Hurricanes from a gambling standpoint.
Carolina is still among the upper echelon of teams in the NHL (fourth in my power ratings), and they should be favored over a team like the Winnipeg Jets tonight – yet they are not.
Winnipeg has been a solid team all season, but nothing more than that.
Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck always has the potential to pitch a shutout and stars like Pierre-Luc Dubois and Kyle Connor pace a Jets team that currently sits tied for second in the Central Division standings.
This is far from an embarrassing position to be in; however, it feels more like a ceiling than a floor (in my opinion).
There is a substantial gap between the Hurricanes’ and Jets’ capabilities, and I am hoping to take advantage of the generous moneyline odds available on Carolina this evening.
Based on my numbers, Carolina defeats Winnipeg in Winnipeg 57.6% of the time – or odds of -136.
This makes the Hurricanes’ moneyline odds of -110 (implied probability of 52.4%) very appealing.
THE PLAYS
Tampa Bay Lightning at Montreal Canadiens – Lightning -1.5 (+125)
Columbus Blue Jackets at Toronto Maple Leafs – Blue Jackets ML (+205)
Carolina Hurricanes at Winnipeg Jets – Hurricanes ML (-110)
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