The Edmonton Oilers are on the brink of elimination, as the Colorado Avalanche hold a 3-0 series lead in the Western Conference Final.
Colorado has been the better team from start to finish, however the Oilers have shown a resiliency throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs that is notable.
Will Edmonton’s season come to an end in front of their home crowd tonight, or will they extend the series to a fifth game in Denver on Wednesday?
Below you will find a wager to consider from tonight’s Game 4 that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
COLORADO AVALANCHE at EDMONTON OILERS
Connor McDavid has been a superhero throughout these Stanley Cup Playoffs, tallying thirty points in fifteen games.
The 25-year-old superstar is a human highlight reel, causing everyone to pay attention whenever he’s on the ice.
Unfortunately for McDavid and the Oilers, he can’t also play goaltender, an area that’s cost Edmonton in each of the first three games of this series.
Given the firepower that Colorado possesses, it’s probably not entirely fair to be overly critical of Mike Smith’s play during the Conference Final.
On the other hand, with the form he sported entering this series (.927 save percentage, two shutouts in twelve Stanley Cup Playoff games), his performances against the Avalanche simply haven’t been good enough.
Yes, he’s been decent in each of his last two games (specifically Game 3) – but just that.
Decent.
His numbers in the first three games of the series combined leave quite a bit to be desired (.879 save percentage), putting the Oilers in a compromising position.
Edmonton’s only chance to defeat Colorado is to outscore them (as opposed to any kind of defensive battle), and even with that being the case, they need to get some semblance of above-average goalkeeping from Smith to have a chance.
This isn’t meant to be a slight to the Avs, who have been exceptional to this point (especially backup goalie Pavel Francouz, who has played as well – if not better – than Darcy Kuemper).
It’s more an acknowledgement of the fact that, without a big effort from Smith, the Oilers have little chance to beat the Avalanche.
The absence of Nazem Kadri in tonight’s game will make life for Smith slightly easier, however he’ll still have to deal with the likes of Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon, and Gabriel Landeskog (among others).
I’m hopeful Edmonton (more specifically Smith) can dial up a big effort tonight at Rogers Place and extend the series.
Again, this may be greedy given the trajectory of this series, but rather than take Edmonton’s moneyline price of +115 (implied probability of 46.5%), I’m more inclined to take the Oilers on the three-way moneyline – meaning they must win in regulation – at odds of +155 (implied probability of 39.2%).
THE PLAYS
Colorado Avalanche at Edmonton Oilers – Oilers Three-Way ML (+155)
