The Colorado Avalanche punched their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final in Edmonton last night, defeating the Oilers by a score of 6-5 in overtime, sweeping their opponents 4-0 in the Western Conference Final.
Depending on how things go over the next few days in the Eastern Conference, the Avs could be waiting a while before playing again, as the Rangers currently hold a 2-1 series lead over the Lightning in the East Final.
Below you will find a wager to consider from Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Final that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
NEW YORK RANGERS at TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING
They may be down 2-1 in their best-of-seven series, but there’s a fair case to be made that the Tampa Bay Lightning have been the better team in each of the past two games – and that’s with Andrei Vasilevskiy playing below his standard (although he was better in Game 3).
In many ways, some of the critical statistics that were hallmarks of these two teams during the regular season have played out in their head-to-head postseason series.
New York struggled all year when playing at even strength, and, aside from Game 1, they’ve been dominated in this category.
Game 1 saw the Rangers slightly outplayed in terms of Corsi for percentages (47.5% v. 52.5%), but Game 2 and Game 3 saw them dominated by the Lightning in this area (40.4% v. 59.6%; 35.6% v. 64.4%).
The enormous discrepancies in this department would partially explain why New York has been outshot by Tampa 122-92 in this series through three games.
With the Lightning dictating play (apart from the final thirty-five minutes of Game 1), the question begs to be asked: how are the Rangers ahead in this series?
The answer is simple.
According to MoneyPuck.com, Tampa has had expected goal totals of 4.45, 3.19, and 4.95 in each of the first three games (total of 12.59 expected goals).
In reality, the Lightning have been stymied by Shesterkin, who has allowed just seven goals to this point, illustrating just how dominant he’s been.
Truthfully, the dominance has been all season long, but especially so since Game 1 of New York’s second round series with the Carolina Hurricanes.
Since Game 1 of that series, Shesterkin has stopped 94.7% of the shots he’s faced, a number in and of itself that is exceptional.
The percentage is even more impressive when considering he’s faced 356 shots over this timeframe.
Igor Shesterkin is both a blessing and curse for the Rangers.
If he continues to play like this, New York not only has a chance to win the East – they could compete with Colorado in the Cup Final.
If he has any kind of regression, however, things could get ugly for the Rangers in a hurry.
I think the late third period goal from Ondrej Palat that propelled Tampa to a 3-2 victory in Game 3 could have been a turning point in the series, leading me to side with the Lightning at home tonight.
Purely based on the odds being offered at PointsBet, I’m going to take Tampa on the puck line (+150; implied probability of 40%) despite the form Shesterkin has showcased.
THE PLAYS
New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning – Lightning -1.5 (+150)
