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The first round of the 2022 Stanley Cup Playoffs begins on Monday night, with four games set to take place across the league.
Below you will find an overlay from one of tonight’s games that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
ST. LOUIS BLUES at MINNESOTA WILD
The St. Louis Blues limped home in the regular season after going on a tear for much of the final month of play, losing games to the Colorado Avalanche and Vegas Golden Knights by a combined score of 12-8.
That final margin may not look terrible, but the Blues were thoroughly outplayed in their contest in Denver and then proceeded to concede five of the last six goals scored in their regular season finale against Vegas.
Hopefully those two games will serve as a wakeup call of sorts for Craig Berube’s bunch, as they will not last long in the postseason if they play that way.
Minnesota enters tonight’s game as the team in better form, winning ten of their last twelve to wrap up their regular season.
Trade deadline acquisition Marc-Andre Fleury is scheduled to get the start in goal tonight for the Wild, and while his season has been the definition of hot-and-cold, his postseason success cannot go overlooked in a series like this.
Star forward Kirill Kaprizov enters the Stanley Cup Playoffs on a heater, tallying seventeen points (five goals, twelve assists) over his final nine regular season games.
Kaprizov will need to play to this level – if not exceed it – if Minnesota is to move on to the next round.
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The Wild are a team that does not do any one thing spectacularly, relying on the sum of their parts for success.
If Kaprizov regresses to an above average level of play, Minnesota could have a challenging time scoring against one of the better netminders in the Western Conference in Ville Husso (although he did struggle in his final four appearances, stopping just 87.1% of the shots he faced).
These teams played three close games in the regular season (including the Winter Classic), but St. Louis emerged victorious in each of them.
I am expecting much of the same in this series, and while tonight’s game is by no means the be-all-end-all, a Blues win on the road would be a tone setter for the remainder of the series.
My number suggest St. Louis defeats the Wild in Minnesota 51% of the time, indicating that their moneyline price of +110 (implied probability of 47.6%) is an overlay worth considering.
THE PLAYS
St. Louis Blues at Minnesota Wild – Blues ML (+110)
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