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NHL Projections and Bets for October 17

Nathan MacKinnon

Nathan MacKinnon

Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

Nine games are on tap in the National Hockey League on Monday night, with the Bruins v. Panthers and Wild v. Avalanche matchups being the co-headliners.

Below you will find my projections for all nine games as well as any wagers worth considering, with odds powered by PointsBet.

The percentages in parentheses next to the odds reflect the implied probability of the price listed.

Here is the results tally for this season:
7-3-0 (70%), +4.22 units

PROJECTIONS

LOS ANGELES KINGS at DETROIT RED WINGS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

LAK

-131

-109 (52.2%)

-1.5 (+220)

+258 (27.9%)

O6.5 (-110)

+165 (37.7%)

+110

+128 (43.8%)

DET

+110

+109 (47.8%)

+1.5 (-276)

-258 (72.1%)

U6.5 (-110)

-165 (62.3%)

+155

+153 (39.5%)

TIE

+340

+501 (16.7%)

VANCOUVER CANUCKS at WASHINGTON CAPITALS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

VAN

+115

+119 (45.6%)

+1.5 (-230)

-223 (69%)

O6 (-121)

+130 (43.5%)

+160

+168 (37.3%)

WSH

-136

-119 (54.4%)

-1.5 (+185)

+223 (31%)

U6 (+100)

+155 (39.2%)

+110

+117 (46.2%)

TIE

+330

+504 (16.6%)

ARIZONA COYOTES at TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

ARI

+395

+667 (13.2%)

+1.5 (+155)

+246 (28.9%)

O6.5 (-131)

-164 (62.1%)

+440

+979 (9.3%)

TOR

-545

-657 (86.8%)

-1.5 (-186)

-246 (71.1%)

U6.5 (+110)

+164 (37.9%)

-265

-489 (83%)

TIE

+470

+1224 (7.6%)

ANAHEIM DUCKS at NEW YORK RANGERS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

ANA

+195

+290 (25.6%)

+1.5 (-131)

+104 (49%)

O6 (-105)

+125 (44.5%)

+255

+428 (18.9%)

NYR

-245

-290 (74.4%)

-1.5 (+110)

-104 (51%)

U6 (-115)

+154 (39.4%)

-145

-210 (67.7%)

TIE

+350

+650 (13.3%)

PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at MONTREAL CANADIENS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

PIT

-255

-295 (74.7%)

-1.5 (+105)

-103 (50.7%)

O6.5 (-125)

+106 (48.5%)

-160

-211 (67.8%)

MTL

+205

+295 (25.3%)

+1.5 (-125)

+103 (49.3%)

U6.5 (+105)

-107 (51.8%)

+265

+442 (18.5%)

TIE

+380

+631 (13.7%)

FLORIDA PANTHERS at BOSTON BRUINS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

FLA

-136

-121 (54.7%)

-1.5 (+190)

+236 (29.8%)

O6.5 (-110)

+119 (45.7%)

+105

+113 (46.9%)

BOS

+115

+121 (45.3%)

+1.5 (-236)

-236 (70.2%)

U6.5 (-110)

-119 (54.3%)

+160

+167 (37.5%)

TIE

+340

+541 (15.6%)

COLORADO AVALANCHE at MINNESOTA WILD

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

COL

-115

-291 (74.4%)

-1.5 (+235)

-116 (53.6%)

O6.5 (-121)

-231 (69.8%)

+125

-217 (68.5%)

MIN

-105

+291 (25.5%)

+1.5 (-295)

+116 (46.4%)

U6.5 (+100)

+231 (30.2%)

+135

+410 (19.6%)

TIE

+340

+743 (11.9%)

WINNIPEG JETS at DALLAS STARS

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

WPG

+125

+173 (36.6%)

+1.5 (-236)

-157 (61.1%)

O6 (-115)

-112 (52.9%)

+170

+241 (29.3%)

DAL

-145

-173 (63.4%)

-1.5 (+190)

+157 (38.9%)

U6 (-105)

+207 (32.6%)

+100

-128 (56.2%)

TIE

+330

+590 (14.5%)

CAROLINA HURRICANES at SEATTLE KRAKEN

ML ODDS

ML PROJ.

PUCK LINE ODDS

PUCK LINE PROJ.

TOTAL ODDS

TOTAL PROJ.

3-WAY ML ODDS

3-WAY ML PROJ.

CAR

-176

-204 (67.1%)

-1.5 (+160)

+141 (41.5%)

O6.5 (+105)

+229 (30.4%)

-110

-141 (58.6%)

SEA

+145

+204 (32.9%)

+1.5 (-196)

-141 (58.5%)

U6.5 (-125)

-229 (69.6%)

+195

+311 (24.4%)

TIE

+340

+486 (17.1%)

BETS

  • The Kings are off to a rather uninspiring start to the season, allowing fourteen goals in three games (tied for the most goals allowed in the league). Their offense has had its moments, but by in large they’ve been an underwhelming squad to this point. Detroit’s young nucleus has been clicking in their first two games, although they’ve struggled a bit in terms of even-strength play (46.5% Corsi for). Neither of the Kings’ goaltenders have been good enough this year, but their overall body of work would suggest that either / both Jonathan Quick and Cal Petersen should bounce back sooner than later. Meanwhile, both Wings goalies have been stout; whether Ville Husso or Alex Nedeljkovic get the call tonight, I’m expecting the positive trend to continue. Under 6.5 goals in all is the play in this spot.
  • The Rangers were handled in Winnipeg on Friday night playing the second half of back-to-backs, but they didn’t have Igor Shesterkin between the pipes. With a few days of rest and a return to Madison Square Garden, look for the Rangers to get back to their winning ways against a subpar Ducks team. The Rangers’ moneyline price is too short for my liking, but the puck line odds of +110 are playable.
  • The Pittsburgh Penguins have struggled on the PK to this point, fending off just six of their opponent’s man advantage opportunities. The good news? Tonight’s competition in the Montreal Canadiens have begun the season 0-for-10 on the power play. Taking under 6.5 goals in this game may seem aggressive given how hot the Pens have been in their first two games (twelve goals scored), but Montreal’s likely starter Jake Allen has been strong in two appearances (.943 save percentage against 70 shots) and Tristan Jarry‘s solid form should continue against a Habs team that doesn’t have the most potent offensive unit.
  • I’m slightly worried my numbers are a bit overzealous when it comes to tonight’s contest between the Avs and Wild – but we trust the process. Colorado remains the team to beat in the NHL’s Western Conference and the goaltending situation in Minnesota is dire. Whether it’s Marc-Andre Fleury (who I expect to start) or Filip Gustavsson who gets the call in this game, they’re likely in for a long night against an Avalanche team that’s been good…but can be better. I’m all-in on Colorado tonight, both in regulation and on the puck line.
  • Taking the under in any game the Seattle Kraken play in is dangerous, simply because of the porous nature of their goaltending. That aside, Seattle has played pretty well to begin the season and now get set to host a Carolina Hurricanes team that has yielded just two goals to this point. A healthy Hurricanes unit last season represented one of the most well-rounded teams in all of hockey, and it appears as though that trend is continuing yet again. Both dangerous and a bit juicy in terms of price, under 6.5 total goals is a play I’m making – but wouldn’t fault anyone for passing on.

THE PLAYS:

  • LOS ANGELES KINGS at DETROIT RED WINGS – UNDER 6.5 GOALS (-110)
  • ANAHEIM DUCKS at NEW YORK RANGERS – RANGERS -1.5 (+110)
  • PITTSBURGH PENGUINS at MONTREAL CANADIENS – UNDER 6.5 GOALS (+105)
  • COLORADO AVALANCHE at MINNESOTA WILD – AVALANCHE 3-WAY ML (+125)
  • COLORADO AVALANCHE at MINNESOTA WILD – AVALANCHE -1.5 (+235)
  • CAROLINA HURRICANES at SEATTLE KRAKEN – UNDER 6.5 GOALS (-125)