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Hello all you NHL bettors out there, and welcome to another weekend of wagering here at NBC Sports Edge! It was another wash on Thursday as the writeup went 1-1, so today we will look to get in the green again. It’s the perfect opportunity to do just that today with nine total games slated to drop the puck around the league. A couple of huge matchups are set for this evening as well, so let’s dive right in to what I am watching!
Records to Date:
Record: 77-53
Units +20.11
Columbus Blue Jackets @ Boston Bruins 7:00 PM ET
At this moment I just can’t fade the Boston Bruins. They have been on a absolute tear over the past month and are fresh off a 8-1 thumping of the New Jersey Devils from Thursday. Tonight could be more of the same, as the Bruins are once again in TD Garden and their opponent is extremely poor on the back end. On the season the B’s are 21-11-2 at home, but as of late they have won five of six while donning the black sweaters. During that stretch the Boston offense has collected 28 goals which equates to 4.66 goals per game, a staggering number. The defense has also improved over the course of the season as they have rebounded nicely from the Rask unretirement fiasco to now being the sixth-best team defense in terms of goals against average at 2.67. Another stat that helps measure the Bruins’ dominance has been the improvement of their Corsi metrics. Boston was outside the top 10 for stretches this season, but lately they are sitting comfortably in sixth place among the league’s 32 teams at 53.5%. To top it off the Bruins and Blue Jackets met once earlier this season, as Boston posted a five-spot in a victory.
On the Columbus side of things tonight, I don’t have many nice things to say. Their defense and goaltending are an absolute disaster as they allow the second-most shots on goal per game in the NHL at 35.3 and they give up 3.72 goals per game, which is the third-most in the league. The Blue Jackets are also 14-17-2 on the road this season and have lost five straight games leading into tonight’s contest. The Jackets’ underlying metrics are poor as well, as they hold a Corsi For of 47.6% which is the ninth-lowest mark overall. Columbus may score a few goals tonight, but with the Bruins riding a hot streak it’s tough to pick against them. The only value on the betting side is going to be the Bruins on the Puck Line at -1.5 tonight, and even that will carry juice of -155. We need to have bankroll-building bets on occasion, though, so let’s ride the Bruins to victory tonight.
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Pittsburgh Penguins @ Colorado Avalanche 3:15 pm ET
It’s time to balance out that negative juice on the Boston Bruins bet from above. Whenever someone considers betting against the Avalanche, they better have a good reason, right? Well, here is my rationale on the Penguins for this afternoon meeting between two NHL giants: the first reason is that afternoon games are just plain weird in pro hockey. These guys are creatures of habit and if you take away a morning skate or switch up your routine it can have an effect. You are likely reading this and saying, “Well ,that’s not able to be measured by statistics,” but it is! Favorites this season in the NHL afternoon window are 30-19 straight up on the Money Line, which is a good hit rate for them, but it’s below the league average of a win percentage of 66% overall. The Penguins have also been a great road team this season with a mark of 22-8-5. Now, they haven’t played Colorado, but it’s still a great track record. Tristan Jarry will make the start in the cage for Pittsburgh tonight, and he will be fresh after having the night off against Minnesota on Thursday. Jarry is 33-14-6 on the season with a GAA of 2.33 and SV% of .921, and those numbers will keep the Pens in the game.
On the Avalanche side, it’s not that I don’t like them today, it’s just the value follows the Penguins and Colorado has played in some tight games of late. In fact, they have played in three one-goal games in a row, and any hockey fan knows that those kind of games can go either way. The Avalanche will also continue to have some key players out of the lineup today with captain Gabriel Landeskog out and Samuel Girard out. The Penguins have the size and speed to give the Avalanche some trouble, and I am betting on them getting a rare win in Colorado this season, but hey crazier things happen all the time in the NHL!
The Picks
Boston Bruins Puck Line -1.5 (-155 on PointsBet)
Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (+135 on PointsBets)
*BONUS* Patrice Bergeron Over 3.5 SOG (-120 on DraftKings)
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