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Postseason Records to Date:
Record: 15-13
Units +1.32
Game 6: New York Rangers at Tampa Bay Lightning, 8PM ET, ESPN
It finally happened on Thursday night: a home team lost in this series! The Rangers, who were previously 8-1 on home ice, fell to the Lightning in deflating fashion after allowing a late goal that could have effectively ended the series. I know what you’ll say: the Rangers have come back from a 3-2 deficit twice already these playoffs, but it’s extremely difficult to continue to defy the statistics that go along with being down in the series. Around 78% of the time the team that goes up 3-2 winds up winning and through the opening two rounds of the postseason the Rangers played out that 22%, how long can that go on?
Tonight, I believe the momentum runs out as the Rangers had reasons for overcoming the odds and winning in seven games against the Penguins and Hurricanes. In the Penguins series, they faced a third-string goaltender, and as the series went the distance, the lack of skill level in net doomed the Penguins. In the Carolina series, New York had the benefit of playing a team that couldn’t win on the road as the Canes didn’t win a single game outside of the state of North Carolina. Now it faces elimination against the two-time defending Stanley Cup Champions and it’s a different story. It will travel to Tampa Bay where the Lightning are 6-1 straight up and have had the better goaltender this series; something that the Rangers have leaned on to get by, but they no longer have. Since the Game 2 loss, goaltender Andrei Vasilevskiy has allowed just four goals over three games and stopped 86 of 90 shots on net. That’s a save percentage of .955%, which is just incredible. There is also a possibility that star center Brayden Point returns from injury tonight and that will certainly shift things into favor for the Lightning. Point has not played since round one and should be champing at the bit to make an impact.
The Rangers also face an internal uphill battle tonight as they have been poor on the road these playoffs. They are 2-7 straight up away from Madison Square Garden and for a young and inexperienced team that makes sense. A reminder too that home teams are 50-32 these playoffs and I have my doubts that they can rally against this titan of an opponent. I will wager on the Lightning to win this game on the 60-minute Money Line and prepare for a Lightning and Colorado Avalanche Stanley Cup Final
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The Pick
Tampa Bay Lightning 60 MIN ML (-125 on PointsBet)
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