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Toronto Maple Leafs @ Minnesota Wild 7:00 pm ET
Here we go folks: the NHL equivalent to the clash of the titans! The Maple Leafs come into this one at 17-6-1 and possess the second-highest goal differential in the entire league at +22. Simply put, they are dominating teams right now and that’s very on par for a regular season Toronto team over the past few years. Goaltender Jack Campbell is in net tonight and he has had an incredible season to this point, with his 1.72 GAA leading the league among qualified players! The offense in front of him has also been sublime, scoring 3.08 goals per game this season, ranking 12th overall in the standings. On the road this season, the Leafs have gone Over their game totals four out of 10 times, but they are trending towards Overs more recently, having hit that mark in three of their last five games. Also, looking at the analytics, you can see this team is elite in the Corsi department, as they rank seventh in the NHL with Corsi For of 52.5%. At even strength, this team lets the puck fly!
The Wild are at home in this contest and they are also another very impressive team. If Toronto was playing another squad, I would strongly consider the Under but this Minnesota team scores goals regardless of opponent this season. The stat to know is that the Wild have gone Over in 10-of-11 home games this season. Yes, you read that correctly: 10 out of 11! They have the fourth-best offense in terms of goals per game at 3.74! Shoot first and ask questions later should be the motto for this team as they also rank eighth in the NHL in Corsi For at 52.3%. Our NBC Sports Edge Game Predictor Engine has this game going Over with it’s max or “green” confidence level and the model is 22-17-1 on game totals this season. I am backing the trends and the model tonight as I look forward to watching the lamp light often in the marquee matchup of the night in the NHL.
The Pick: Toronto Maple Leafs & Minnesota Wild; Over 6 Goals (+100 on PointsBet)
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Pittsburgh Penguins @ Vacouver Canucks 10 pm ET
The 2021 Penguins have been a roller coaster team all season long. After starting the season without many of their star players, they managed big wins against many top teams, followed by losing 5-of-6 games in late October/early November. Then, throughout November, they saw a five-game win streak fade into where they are going into tonight, losers of three in a row. They have been a difficult team to bet on given the track record but tonight, there’s a distinct edge on the Penguins’ Money Line. The edge is directly tied to starting goaltender, Tristian Jarry, who is projected to start tonight. Jarry has allowed just seven goals over the past seven games, which is a pretty wild trend. Six of those seven games were also on the road, so the Penguins netminder doesn’t mind being away from home base one bit! To top it off, Jarry has a 5-2 straight-up record in the last seven games. The Pens offense in front of him continues to look good in the stats despite their scoring issues recently as they rank 11th in Corsi For at 51.9%. The power play unit is slowly improving as well, going from dead-last a couple weeks ago to 26th now at 13.6%. Pittsburgh is 5-3-3 on the road this season.
On the home side, the Vancouver Canucks continue to struggle this season as they sit in last place of the Pacific Division at 8-14-2. While they have won their past two games, they came against poor competition, beating the Canadiens and Senators on the road. The Canucks are worse at home than on the road, with a record of 3-6-1. Of note, Vancouver hasn’t won a home game since November 19th! The Canucks played the Penguins just a couple weeks ago and lost that contest 4-1 in a game that Pittsburgh dominated the whole way. The Penguins will get better odds on the Money Line tonight being the away team and that’s just the opportunity I need to back them tonight. Pittsburgh has struggled to score at times this season but against a Canucks team that allows 3.13 goals per game, a remedy could be on the horizon. Penguins on the Money Line tonight for me!
The Pick: Pittsburgh Penguins Money Line (-140 on PointsBet)
Adam Fox, New York Rangers Player Prop
Don’t look now but the defending Norris Trophy winner Adam Fox is putting together an impressive campaign and is looking favorable to win the award in back-to-back seasons. Fox is the backbone of this Rangers team that sits at 15-4-3 this season, good enough for second place in the Metropolitan Division. Fox is second amongst blue liners in points with 23 on the season and is leading in assists with 19. The Rangers D-man also ranks 13th in the NHL in total ice time with 24:37 minutes per game and you know you must be on the ice to end up on the stat sheet! Fox has recorded at least a point in seven of the last 10 games and tonight, his team gets a Chicago Blackhawks team that allows 3.18 goals per game (ninth-most in the NHL). I like Fox to record an assist tonight as the game script may need more offense from the Rangers in this game with starting netminder Igor Shesterkin out with a leg injury.
The Pick: Adam Fox Over 0.5 Assists (-130 on PointsBet)
