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Wagering options are limited in the English Premier League on Sunday, as there are only two matches set to take place.
Below you will find an overlay from one of the games that is available at PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would represent an overlay.
WEST HAM v. BURNLEY – TO WIN TO NIL – West Ham (+170)
Tottenham’s stunning home loss to Brighton on Saturday coupled with Arsenal’s disappointing loss at Southampton make the race for fourth in the Premier League that much tighter, and David Moyes’ squad should have every opportunity to inch closer to Champions League football with a win over Burnley on Sunday.
Entering Sunday’s match, the Hammers sit six points outside the top four, making the battle at London Stadium one they simply cannot afford to lose if they’re to make a run.
West Ham’s form has been hit-or-miss for the better part of two months, playing well in European competition (wins over both Sevilla and Lyon en route to the Europa League semi-finals) yet struggling domestically (losses to Tottenham and Brentford over their last three EPL matches).
While Burnley will be desperately looking for a result to help avoid relegation, the matchup for the home side should be one they can exploit.
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Perhaps there will be a slight bump in play from the visitor’s following the dismissal of manager Sean Dyche but based on reports from the U.K. it doesn’t sound as though his removal is necessarily a popular – or positive – one.
Burnley have struggled to score goals all season long (twenty-five in thirty Premier League matches), but their recent stretch of play has been horrific.
The Clarets have scored three goals over their last six EPL games, with all of them coming in their 3-2 victory over Everton on April 6.
By no means is Lukasz Fabianski among the best goalkeepers in England at this point in his career, but the lack of scoring prowess Burnley has shown over the past few months makes West Ham’s prospects of earning a victory via clean sheet one that shouldn’t be dismissed.
My projections have West Ham winning via clean sheet 38.9% of the time (translates to odds of +157), suggesting their odds of +170 (implied probability of 37%) represent an overlay worth considering.
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