The English Premier League is back in full swing this weekend, with seven fixtures scheduled for Saturday.
Saturday’s main event is the North London Derby between Arsenal and Tottenham, but there is another match I’m more interested in from a betting perspective.
Below you will find an overlay from this match to consider, with the listed odds available at DraftKings.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
5-6-1 (45.8%), +0.08 units
AFC BOURNEMOUTH v. BRENTFORD – MONEYLINE – Brentford (+125)
These two clubs may be separated by a single point, but Brentford are clearly the better side as far as nearly every meaningful metric is concerned.
Thomas Frank’s squad was last seen losing 3-0 to the league leaders in Arsenal, but that shouldn’t be held against the Bees given the form the Gunners have displayed this year.
Prior to that defeat in Matchweek 8, Brentford had only lost once in six other Premier League contests while winning twice and playing to a draw on two other occasions.
One area where the Bees have improved dramatically is arguably the most important statistical category there is – goal scoring.
Through seven games, Brentford are tied for the fourth most goals scored in the Premier League this season, averaging 2.14 goals per 90 minutes (per fbref.com).
This is an extreme shift from their middle-of-the-road scoring last year when they averaged 1.21 goals per 90 minutes, illustrating just how much better the squad has been at creating and converting chances this season.
The small sample size may skew the data some, but the Bees have been extremely consistent to this point, scoring at least one goal in six of their seven league matches.
Conversely, Bournemouth have had a miserable time finding the back of the net, averaging less than a goal per match (0.86) in their first season back in the Premier League since 2019-2020.
As paltry as this number may be, it becomes exceedingly alarming when factoring in that three of their six goals on the season came in a single match against lowly Nottingham Forest.
The area of Saturday’s fixture that Brentford should be able to control is aerial battles, with the Bees winning 53.8% (fifth best) during the season compared to Bournemouth’s 45.5% (fifth worst).
Look for Brentford to cash in on some combination of set pieces and / or crosses on the road Saturday at Vitality Stadium.
My numbers suggest the Bees secure all three points on the road Saturday 61.8% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -162.