The footballing world’s attention will be focused on London on Sunday, as Jurgen Klopp‘s Liverpool squad heads to Emirates Stadium to take on Mikel Arteta and league-leading Arsenal.
Below you will find an overlay from Sunday’s clash at the Emirates, with the odds supplied by PointsBet.
For those unfamiliar with the term “overlay,” it simply refers to odds that are higher than an outcome’s true probability.
For example, if an outcome has a 50% chance of happening, the correlating odds would be +100.
If the odds offered on that specific event are +150, or an implied probability of 40%, then the price would be an overlay.
Here is the year-to-date results tally:
7-7-1 (50%), +1.67 units
ARSENAL v. LIVERPOOL – TOTAL GOALS – Over 3.5 (+138)
Based on the way the first two months of the Premier League season have gone, there’s a serious case to be made that Arsenal have supplanted Liverpool as Manchester City’s primary rival when it comes to Premier League glory.
Arteta‘s squad has been exceptional from start to finish this season, with the only blip on the radar being a 3-1 defeat against Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Even in that defeat, it’s not as though the Gunners played poorly, owning a 3:2 edge in terms of possession while creating a handful of quality scoring chances.
The composure and relentlessness this young Arsenal team has shown to this point suggests they’ve taken a significant step forward, and that their success is sustainable.
Liverpool, on the other hand, have looked sloppy from the preseason forward.
Jurgen Klopp‘s Reds have been uncharacteristically erratic, and some of their stats may make them appear better than they truly are.
Aside from the 9-0 drubbing handed to Bournemouth in Matchweek 4, Liverpool have averaged 1.5 goals per game in their six other league games, while also conceding the same number of goals (1.5) on average.
Both numbers are simply mediocre, especially when compared to the numbers possessed by Arsenal (2.37 goal per game; 1 goal against per 90 minutes).
Each of these sides enjoy maintaining possession during their contests (Arsenal 59.4%, Liverpool 66.9%), meaning something’s got to give on Sunday.
With the way Liverpool have trended this year, one would think there would be an increased sense of urgency looking to avoid falling fourteen points behind Arsenal this early in the campaign.
Conversely, an Arsenal win on Sunday wouldn’t just maintain their position atop the table, but it could – for all intents and purposes – wipe a team like Liverpool out of consideration as title contenders.
Liverpool needs to see the best version of Mo Salah on Sunday to have a chance, while the wealth of scoring potential that Arsenal possesses in Jesus, Bukayo Saka, and Martinelli (among others) afford the Gunners many options.
I’m expecting at least one crooked number to be posted on the scoreboard in this match on Sunday – if not two.
My numbers suggest a match total of four goals or more occurs 52.4% of the time, a percentage that translates to odds of -110.
This makes the current odds of +138 (implied probability of 42%) on over 3.5 goals being scored an overlay that should be taken advantage of.