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Unfortunately, both midweek total plays failed to come through, including one that didn’t even sniff a cash.
Liverpool and Leicester not only stayed under 1.5 goals for the first half, but for the entire game. Meanwhile, a Brighton goal at the death meant our under 0.5 team total came out a loser as well.
That moves this sub-column to 22-18-1 as we present another pair of total plays for the first EPL Matchday of 2022. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Liverpool Team Total Over 1.5 Goals (+105) vs. Chelsea
Even though Chelsea played down a man for the entire second half at Anfield, Liverpool did a lot of damage in the first half when it was 11v11.
The Reds generated 2.8 expected goals in a 1-1 draw, 2.09 of which came in the opening 45 minutes, per fotmob.com. Additionally, Liverpool created four big scoring chances in that match and produced 2.01 xG from non-penalty situations against a Chelsea defense that was the best in the league at that point.
Now they travel to Stamford Bridge, where manager Thomas Tuchel’s side has been anything but solid defensively as of late. In their last five home matches, the Blues have failed to keep a clean sheet each time out and have only held their opponent under 1.0 expected goal in two of the last five, per fbref.com.
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And if ever there was a time to buy low on the Liverpool offense, it’s now. Despite losing 1-0 in their last fixture at Leicester City, Liverpool created 2.6 expected goals in that match. Additionally, their previous meeting with Chelsea marks the only occasion this season in which Liverpool failed to score two or more goals against a Super League side.
Add in that Liverpool are due for some positive offensive regression away from home - seven goals on nine expected in their last four road fixtures - and I’m willing to bet they get two past a Chelsea defense that’s conceded at least twice to them in four of their last six encounters.
Finally, the fact you’re getting plus-money here is an added bonus as I’d play this number up to -110.
Best Bet #2 - Manchester United/Wolves Under 2.5 Goals (-115)
At this point in the season, Wolves would probably need a wide open net the size of the Atlantic to be able to score.
Since Matchday 11, manager Bruno Lage’s side has managed to produce one or more expected goals twice. Additionally, in those eight fixtures, they’ve managed to create 0.3 or fewer expected goals five times.
And even though they managed 2.25 xG in the reverse meeting between at Molineux, Wolves created only three big chances, per fotmob.com. As a point of reference, they created a grand total of zero chances in the two prior meetings against the Red Devils.
Add in that they’ve played eight straight to under 2.5 goals and will (likely) be without their leading attacker (Hwang Hee-Chan) in terms of season-long xG and I’m shocked this price isn’t at least -130.
On the Manchester United front, they’ve seemingly hit an offensive plateau since their three-goal explosion against Arsenal. In their last three matches, United have generated only a single goal each time out and are on pace for some negative offensive home regression - 14 goals on 11.9 expected.
Additionally, United have overperformed their underlying xG data against the league’s best defenses. Through eight matches against the EPL’s ten-best defenses, the Red Devils have produced 11 goals on 9.4 expected, per fbref.com.
Finally, seeing as Wolves have played five matches against Super League sides and kept all five under 2.5 goals, I expect that trend to continue. History supports that claim too as five of the last seven meetings between these sides have stayed under 2.5 goals.
With that in mind, I’ll play this number up to -130.
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