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While both our Matchday 23 side bets won on expected goals, both emerged as losers in reality.
Brentford’s positive home regression failed to come against Wolves, who pulled off yet another improbable road win. Meanwhile, Arsenal dominated Burnley at home, but couldn’t find a winning goal to cash our “win to nil” play.
That leaves this column at 20-17-9 as we get ready to present another pair of plays. As always, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Manchester United Goal-Line (-1) vs. Burnley (-105)
Hold your nose, close your eyes and buy low on Manchester United away from Old Trafford.
The Red Devils have experienced a lot of good luck in road fixtures this season - +3 goal differential on a -4.0 xGDiff - but the fact is they’ve dominated Burnley historically. United have won seven straight and eight of the last nine on xG against the Clarets, who have experienced a lot of good Fortune offensively against United.
In those same nine fixtures, Burnley have produced eight goals on 6.1 expected, per fbref.com. In the last six head-to-head meetings, manager Sean Dyche’s squad has produced six goals on only 3.8 expected.
Plus, United dominated the earlier meeting this season at Old Trafford. They won the xG battle 2.0-0.8, created more big chances (3-2) and had the better xG numbers in open play (1.32-0.58).
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Additionally, the one road category in which United has proved fairly reliable is with their attack. United have only been held under 1.0 xG twice on the road this season, have produced at least one expected goal in four straight and at least two expected goals in two of the last four, per fbref.com.
Meanwhile, Burnley’s attack ranks out pretty low in key underlying metrics - they are third-worst in both goal-creating actions per 90 and xG per 90.
Lastly, United should be able to limit Burnley’s chances off dead-ball situations - they’ve combined to allow only 0.19 xGA per shot off corners/set pieces and only two total goal-creating actions from those situations.
With all that in mind, expect the visitors to claim all three points.
Best Bet #2 - Two-Leg ML Parlay: Tottenham and West Ham (+122)
I’m basing this parlay off two teams that had road success and now return home, a venue where both Spurs and West Ham have had great success.
Tottenham, who face Southampton, dominated in the first meeting. They won 2.56-0.43 on expected goals and created four big scoring chances. Even if you remove the second half, where Antonio Conte’s side played up a man for the entirety, they still won the first half on xG 0.92-0.24.
Now they get the Saints at home where they’re unbeaten under Conte (W4-D1) and have won all five matches on expected goals. Plus, their offense has proved quite potent in those matches, generating 12 goals on 12 expected, per fbref.com.
Add in that they’ve won five in a row at home against Southampton, who have conceded the third-most road xGA this season, and I trust Spurs will grab all three points.
Next we have West Ham, who absolutely fleeced Watford 4-1 in their December meeting at Vicarage Road. The Hammers won on xG too (2.71-1.26) and won the big chances battle (5-2), per fotmob.com.
Even though West Ham has a -1 goal differential in five home matches against bottom-half opposition, they actually have a +2.4 xGDiff, meaning they’re in for some positive regression.
Additionally, Watford has lost all four road matches against top-half opposition this season while struggling to produce offensively. In those four matches, the Hornets have generated fewer than one expected goal on three occasions.
With Saïd Benrahma back in the fold for David Moyes’ squad, expect the Hammers to claim victory at the London Stadium against an unstable Watford side.
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