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A COVID postponement left us with only a single best total bet in the midweek, but the good news is we picked a winner!
Aston Villa’s defense continued their strong defensive form, resigning Norwich to yet another defeat. In the process, the game stayed under 2.5 goals with our feelings about the Villa offense confirmed.
That leaves us at 19-15-1 entering the 18th Matchday of the Premier League season as we get ready to present another pair of total plays. As is custom, odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Manchester City Team Total Over 2.5 Goals (-125) vs. Newcastle United
It may seem totally obvious, but I’m shocked you’re not being asked to lay -140 or higher here.
When they go up against the worst defenses in the Premier League, Manchester City have shown a tendency to lay waste to the opposition’s backline.
Against sides currently sitting 10th or worst in the xGA/90 table, City have gotten two or more goals in eight of nine and have cleared 2.5 goals in five. Plus, they’ve improved on the latter stat as of late, posting three or more goals in three of their last four against the ten worst defenses.
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On the flip-side, Newcastle’s defensive metrics are quite concerning. They possess the second-worst xGA total at home this season and generally don’t do well against the top offenses.
In games against Chelsea, Leicester, Manchester United, Arsenal, West Ham, Brentford and Southampton - teams that sit 3rd-9th in the xG/90 table - Newcastle have only conceded under 2.5 goals twice. On one of those occasions - against Southampton - they conceded twice, but on 3.6 expected goals against.
Finally, Newcastle have struggled mightily in past meetings with the Cityzens. The Mancunian side has posted at least two goals in four straight and six of the last seven, while posting at least four goals in two of the last three.
Given Newcastle will also be on short rest after (likely) getting bossed around by Liverpool, I expect City will dominate proceedings and clear this number.
Best Bet #2 - Leeds/Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals (-150)
Combine the strong home metrics of Leeds with the troublesome road record of Arsenal and I believe we’re in for a high-scoring game at Elland Road.
Through eight home matches this season, Leeds have only been held off the scoresheet one time. That came against Liverpool, who conceded 1.2 xGA in that fixture.
Look back further and bettors will find that Leeds have only been held scoreless at home in seven of their previous 27 Premier League fixtures.
Additionally, Leeds hold the 10th-best xGF output at home this season, averaging 1.5 xG at Elland Road. They’re also due for some positive regression on their home turf as they’ve only slotted home nine goals on 12 expected in their eight home matches, per fbref.com.
Meanwhile, Arsenal have been atrocious in defense away from the Emirates. Through eight fixtures, the Gunners have conceded the third-most road xGA (16.2) and have deserved every one of those concessions (16 actual goals against).
The underlying defensive metrics for Arsenal are worrisome too. They’re due for negative defensive regression in general - 22 goals against on 25 expected goals against - and sit 12th and 13th in goal-creating actions & shot-creating actions against, respectively.
That said, I don’t trust the Leeds defense either. They’ve conceded two or more expected goals against in four of their last six and at least one expected goal in six straight, per fbref.com.
Against an Arsenal offense that is clicking right now (10 goals on nine expected in their last five), I expect the visitors are capable of at least one tally.
From there, you need either side to get to two goals, a feat I believe is easily achievable.
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