After a two-week hiatus, I’m back with another edition of my best Premier League prop bets.
Perhaps a break was needed after our last output, where we failed to cash each of our both teams to score plays. Both matches - Leicester vs. Chelsea and Wolves vs. West Ham - got halfway there, but ultimately didn’t cash.
But with teams playing on short rest, I believe there’s definite value to be found in certain prop markets, including BTTS.
So without further delay, here are my two best match prop bets across the Matchday 14 slate. All odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - West Ham/Brighton & Hove Albion Both Teams to Score “Yes” (-125)
I broke down this game a little already in my best total bets for the midweek, but also believe you’re getting good value in this market.
The “yes” side of this prop market has cashed in five straight and six of the last eight head-to-head meetings between the Hammers and the Seagulls. Additionally, in the last four at the London Stadium, the smallest expected goal output for either side is 0.6.
Plus, each side has surpassed one expected goal in three straight meetings, per fbref.com.
But the main reason I’m buying into this market is that there’s an argument to be made that the pressure is on the hosts.
Brighton have actually produced a higher goal-scoring success rate in the past eight meetings, registering 16 goals on 11.2 expected in the last eight fixtures. While they’ve definitely experienced good luck in their last three at London Stadium - seven goals on 3.2 expected - I’ll take the fact that they’re registering 1.0 xGF/90 minutes.
Seeing as West Ham are sliding a bit defensively as of late - 1.0 xGA in four straight EPL fixtures and only one home clean sheet in domestic play - I’m confident Brighton can get on the board at least once against a side that has demonstrated concerning defensive metrics.
The Hammers are 12th in shots on target per 90, ninth in non-penalty expected goals against and eighth in shot-creating actions against per 90, per fbref.com. Furthermore, the Hammers have allowed above-average non-penalty expected goal numbers in three of their last four home fixtures.
That said, don’t expect this West Ham defense to be held at home. In their last 25 matches at home, only three sides have kept David Moyes’ side off the scoresheet. And only four sides have kept them under one expected goal in those same 25 matches.
Given those trends and the fact West Ham are tied for the second-best BTTS percentage in the league this season, I’d be willing to lay this number up to -140.
Best Bet #2 - Brighton to Win Either Half (+145) vs. West Ham
I’m rarely one to recommend this many plays for one game - this will be our third - but this price makes absolutely no sense to me.
Yes, West Ham are the better side on paper and have the better table position. But Brighton enter this match with superior history and are arguably the more in-form club as of late.
Examine the last eight meetings between these clubs and you’ll find Brighton are a) unbeaten (three wins against five draws) and b) have only lost one of the last eight on expected goals, per fbref.com. In that same window, the Seagulls have also won at least a half in two of the last three and five of the last eight.
There’s also the matter of how Brighton perform this prop when they’re able to get on the scoreboard. If you buy into the BTTS analysis, you recognize there’s a pretty good chance Brighton will score. And in the eight matches Brighton have surpassed 0.5 team goals this season, they’ve won at least a half in seven such fixtures.
Extrapolate that data out further and bettors will find Brighton have won at least a half in 17 of the last 20 and 24 of the last 34 fixtures when they’ve scored at least one goal, per footystats.org.
West Ham, meanwhile, have only pulled off five outright wins in their 12 home halves this season. Granted, they’ve also only lost three halves outright, but two of those have come in their last four home fixtures.
As opposed to Brighton’s data, the West Ham data for this prop market gets more concerning as you look further back. Consider all 19 home matches last season and the first six home fixtures this season and you’ll find West Ham have only won 23 halves outright, per footystats.org.
With all that data in mind, you’re telling me Brighton only have a 41 percent chance of winning either half as the implied probability indicates? I’m sorry, but I’m not buying it.
Ideally there would be an option for push protection, but I’m willing to take the chance with what I believe is the better side.
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