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A postponement between Aston Villa and Burnley reduced us to only one side bet across Matchday 18, and unfortunately it came out a loser.
We laid a goal with Chelsea at Wolves, who looked the better side from the start and picked up a home point. Hopefully that will turn out to be the end of a three-pick losing streak after a long unbeaten stretch.
The good news is we’ll (hopefully) have nine Boxing Day matches and one Monday match to choose from after the Premier League announced they won’t be altering the festive period schedule.
So without further delay, here are my best side bets for the Matchday 19 slate. All odds come courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook and are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Tottenham Goal-Line (-1) vs. Crystal Palace (+135)
Perhaps an extended break was just what Antonio Conte and Tottenham needed in order to get themselves back in form.
Spurs looked very sharp over the weekend against Liverpool and picked up a draw while winning the expected goal battle 3.4-1.5.
Now they remain in North London to battle a Crystal Palace side that drubbed them 3-0 in the reverse fixture. With revenge surely on the mind of Tottenham, I believe this is a good opportunity to bet them at this price before their odds catch up with them.
Since Conte took over, Spurs are unbeaten in Premier League play (3W-2D) and have won every match on expected goals. Additionally, their offense is playing their best all season, having registered at least 1.7 expected goals in four straight and 2.0+ in three of their last four, per fbref.com.
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While their defense is due for some regression - three goals against on 4.5 expected in their last four EPL outings - the fact is they’re going up against a Palace side this week that ranks 16th in road xGF amongst teams that have played at least eight road matches. Plus, Palace are due for some negative road offensive regression having scored nine road goals on 7.6 expected, again per fbref.com.
Moreover, Palace’s normally trustworthy defense continues to struggle away from Selhurst Park. They’ve only kept one road clean sheet to date and have allowed at least one expected goal in all eight road fixtures.
Given that Tottenham’s offense has overperformed their shots on target/90 and shot-creating actions/90 in four straight and their goal-creating actions in three of their last four, I trust they’ll be capable of getting margin in this match and doing no worse than a push on this goal-line.
Best Bet #2 - West Ham Moneyline (-121) vs. Southampton
To me, this is the perfect buy-low spot on West Ham, who arrive having picked up one point in their last two matches.
However, the Hammers have been a trustworthy home side historically and I expect that will continue against a staggering Southampton defense. Through nine road fixtures, the Saints have allowed the fourth-most expected goals against as well as the fourth-most actual goals against, per fbref.com.
Additionally, in the two road matches in which Southampton kept a clean sheet, they conceded at least one expected goal in both. Put those metrics up against a West Ham attack that has yet to be held off the board at home this season and has generated at least one expected goal in all eight of their matches at London Stadium, and Southampton should be forced into an offensive match.
That likely won’t bode well for their chances against West Ham. In matches this season played to over 2.5 goals, the Saints have yet to win and have posted four draws against five losses. On the flip-side, West Ham are 6-1-3 in games that feature three or more goals this season.
Plus, there are underlying metrics that suggest West Ham’s offense will have an advantage. The Hammers sit 6th in total non-penalty xG this season, while Southampton rank 12th. Additionally, David Moyes’ squad ranks 5th in total goal-creating actions, while Southampton arrive in a dismal 14th.
Add in that West Ham have now won four in a row at home against Southampton (12-1 on aggregate, 7.4-3.5 on xG) and are well-rested and I believe you’ll see the Hammers return to form on Sunday.
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