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Rest easy soccer fanatics - only three sleeps separate you from the return of the Premier League.
Headlining the season’s first match set is Manchester City vs. Tottenham Hotspur with the future of Harry Kane hanging in the balance.
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At PointsBet Sportsbook, though, Chelsea are the biggest weekend favorite (-400) as they prepare to host Crystal Palace. Aside from the Blues, Liverpool are the only other favorites at -300 or higher as they get set to visit Norwich City.
But which teams are the best bets across the first 10 matches of the season? Here are the sides I’ll be targeting for the opening weekend of play. As always, all prices are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Arsenal Moneyline (-118) vs. Brentford
I know, I know - this is hardly the side you want to put your faith in on the very first matchday.
But the fact is that Arsenal have some positive metrics for their visit to Brentford, while the EPL newcomers have history working against them.
In their last four season-opening matches, Arsenal have won three with their only loss coming against Manchester City. Plus, Arsenal cruised to an easy 3-1 victory in a 2018 League Cup match against the Bees.
What’s more is that Arsenal are 17-8-5 in their last 30 road games against bottom-half sides, a 70 percent winning percentage. That record also includes a 7-1-2 record against the bottom-half and a perfect 3-0-0 record against relegated sides last season.
Given the implied probability on the Arsenal moneyline equates to about a 54 percent chance, I believe this is the perfect time to buy low on the Gunners.
As far as Brentford go, promoted teams have not performed well in their first match of the season after joining the top-flight. The last promoted side to win their opening match of the Premier League season was Huddersfield Town in the 2017-18 campaign.
Otherwise, the remaining 11 teams have amassed a whopping nine losses, two draws and zero wins in that time frame.
Given that Brentford have absolutely no previous EPL experience to draw upon, I think they’ll struggle to contain Arsenal’s attack.
Are they capable of scoring? Sure. But seeing as Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang and Alexandre Lacazette both had the summer off, I expect Brentford will need at least two goals to get a draw, three if they hope to win.
Best Bet #2 - Three-Leg Parlay: Liverpool ML/Chelsea ML/Man City Double Chance (-113)
Let’s double down on our “fade the promoted teams” system and take Liverpool to grab three points at Carrow Road against Norwich.
The Reds have won five of their last six meetings with the Canaries, including both meetings in 2019-20, the previous season Norwich spent in the top flight.
Then there’s Chelsea, who finally get a break in their home opener in Crystal Palace after facing Liverpool, Leicester and Arsenal in the last three seasons.
The Blues carry a seven-match winning streak against Palace into this match and have won six of eight against Palace at home since the Eagles joined the top-flight in the 2013-14 campaign.
What’s more is that their 3-1 victory over Manchester United last season marked the first time in six tries that Palace won their opening road match against a top-half club.
Finally, there’s Manchester City in the marquee match Sunday.
To find the last time the Cityzens did anything but win their opening match, you’d have to travel back to the 2010-11 season. Since that match - ironically, a 0-0 draw with Tottenham - they’ve reeled off 10 straight wins on the first matchday.
As for the last time they lost on the opening matchday? That would be all the way back in 2008-09, a 4-2 defeat against Aston Villa.
The only reason I’m choosing to hedge slightly with a double chance leg is that City don’t have a flawless record at Tottenham. They’ve lost their last two meetings and are 2-0-3 in their last five.
That said, I trust Pep Guardiola and company to do no worse than a point this time around.
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