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Over the last four Matchdays, we’ve been solidly average on totals.
The last eight picks have gone 4-4, including yet another 1-1 finish on Matchday 16. It was an up-and-down day as far as the picks went, with Leeds cashing their team total easily but West Ham and Burnley not even coming close to going over 2.5 goals.
I’ll hope to improve on our form as I receive another chance to pick some winners on Matchday 17 in the midweek. Here are those two selections, with odds courtesy of PointsBet Sportsbook. As always, odds are reflective at time of writing.
Best Bet #1 - Norwich City/Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals (-130)
Since Steven Gerrard took over at Villa, defense has been their top priority.
Throw out their 2.5 expected goals against vs. Liverpool over the weekend and bettors will find that Villa have only conceded 3.4 expected goals across their previous four matches, including twice against sides that rank in the top four in terms of xG/90.
Now they’ll visit a Norwich offense that ranks dead last in xG/90, non-penalty expected goals/90, shots on target/90 and goal-creating actions/90, all per fbref.com. Plus, after a brief uptick in offense performance, the Canaries have declined as of late, generating only one goal on 3.8 expected in their last three matches.
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And believe it or not, Villa are due for some positive defensive regression. In the four matches preceding Liverpool, Gerrard’s side conceded four times on the aforementioned 3.4 expected. That trend continues across the whole season too, as Villa have conceded 25 times on only 22.7 expected goals against.
That said, Villa have yet to find their groove offensively away from home. They’ve generated only 7.6 expected goals this season through eight road fixtures and have only scored more than once in two of those eight fixtures.
Meanwhile, the Norwich defense has been steadily improving at Carrow Road. Throw out their recent match against Manchester United, who generated two expected goals, and the Canaries have only allowed three goals on 3.3 expected in their previous four home matches.
Even if you take into account the United match, there are positives for Norwich to take away. Despite their high xGA total, they held United to below-average shot- and goal-creating actions.
With Villa due for some negative offensive regression in general - 21 goals on 16 expected - I believe this is a good spot to back an under.
Best Bet #2 - Brentford/Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals (-125)
For as good as they’ve been at home, Brentford are still due for some positive regression in the goal department.
Through eight home matches, the Bees have scored 10 goals on 12 expected goals, which represents the second-largest discrepancy among teams in the top nine.
Additionally, Brentford have only once been held under one expected goal in their first eight home matches and have cleared 1.5 expected goals in four of their last six on home soil.
Put that up against a United defense that has conceded the sixth-most road expected goals and I don’t think it’s outside the realm of possibility you get one or two from Brentford on Tuesday.
That said, Manchester United’s offense has steadily improved on their expected goal metrics recently. Across their last four Premier League fixtures, the Red Devils have scored six goals on 5.7 expected goals and have posted at least 1.9 expected goals in two of their last three.
Even though Brentford sit eighth in total expected goals against, they’ve only kept two home clean sheets this season. Plus, they’ve posted below average shot-creating actions allowed in four of their last five and below-average goal-creating actions allowed in three of their last five.
And in their six matches against teams currently sitting in the top-half of the xG/90 table, Brentford have allowed at least one expected goal in all six and have only kept a clean sheet once.
That tells me there are at least two goals in this match, meaning you need one side to get to two. But given the way these sides are playing offensively, I believe four or more goals are a possibility.
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