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This weekend’s slate offers six EPL matches, and with the postponement of Wolves and Manchester City, there aren’t any top-10 matchups. That’s perfectly fine; I found a plus money play that I feel has value. The match that has my attention is the one between Watford and Brentford. You can find the odds on PointsBet Sportsbook.
Watford vs Brentford (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET):
Three-way Moneyline: Watford (+185) | Draw (+220) |Brentford (+150)
Brentford Team Total Goals over 1.5 (+148)
Let’s call a spade a spade; Watford are bad. They are terrible defensively. Even with the addition of Roy Hodgson, Watford lack the defensive continuity to keep teams out of the back of their net. They often lose the battle in the midfield, making it challenging to keep spells of possession. Because of their inability to hold possession battles, they defend most of the match and absorb too many shots. That’s one of the reasons they are 19th on the table and on their way to relegation.
Brentford are officially safe from relegation. I am a bit worried about what kind of motivation they bring into this match. Had they been fighting for safety, I likely would’ve pounced on their money line at +150. Since the acquisition of Christian Eriksen, Brentford have played much better. They had talent, but no one in the midfield could facilitate or create. Now they do.
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I expect this game to be very open. Watford know they need three points here. The Hodgson method of sitting back and trying to earn a minimum of one point will not do unless they have excepted relegation.
I am backing the Brentford team total over 1.5 goals (+148). The price is absurd. Watford have conceded two goals in five of their last seven and are allowing 2.47 goals per home match. On the other side of the park, Brentford have scored two-plus goals in four of their last five and back-to-back head-to-heads with Watford.
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