Matchday 14 has passed and once again the top three clubs found a way to victory. Of the three, Chelsea had the toughest of tasks. The Blues looked lost without the services of Jorginho. The lack of ball control troubled Chelsea throughout the match. While they weren’t best club in that match, they were able to survive the day and leave Watford with all three points, extending their unbeaten streak to eight.
Next week some clubs have midweek European fixtures. We will look to avoid clubs that might be forced to rotate due to fitness issues and lack of depth. With that being said, I found a play that has a lot of value. All odds can be found at PointsBet Sportsbook.
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Newcastle United vs Burnley (Saturday, 10 a.m. ET)
Three-way Moneyline: Newcastle (+130) | Draw (+230) | Burnley (+215)
Newcastle games have been an auto both teams to score wager for me for much of the season. Rightfully so, they seem to be weatherproof, tactic proof, and even referee proof. Think back to their midweek fixture with Norwich, Newcastle were shown red in the ninth minute and the game was tied 0-0 at the half. Yet somehow, Newcastle earned a penalty in the 60th minute after the ball took a deflection off Billy Gilmour’s arm inside the penalty area. Then later in the match, Teemu Pukki equalized with a beautiful volley into the back of the net.
The bet I am backing in this game is both teams to score (-140). As exciting as the Newcastle football games have been this year, times are tough if you are a Newcastle fan. They are 0-4-3 at home and have conceded a league high 17 goals. They also have the league’s highest home xGA. Both teams to score has hit in 79% of Newcastle’s matches, which sees an increase to 86% at home. The defensive woes are evident as they have yet to record a clean sheet this season. On the other side of the ball, they have done well finding the back of the net. They have scored in all but one home match. The lone home match they failed to hit the scoresheet was against Chelsea, arguably the best defensive team in the EPL.
Backing Burnley goals is always scary. However, the numbers on their side still support it. Both teams to score is 62%. Owning the third worse xG is a bit of a worry, but I don’t see Newcastle picking up a clean sheet anytime soon. On the defensive side of the ball, Burnley own the third worst road xGA in EPL. With just two clean sheets on the season, it’s safe to assume the home team will snag at least one goal. In the last two head-to-head EPL matches between the clubs, they both team to score hit. I am backing both teams to score (-140) with confidence.
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