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PL Best Bets: Goals galore for Leeds United



Stu Forster - Getty Images

Matchweek 21 is underway, and naturally; I am ready to run through a brick wall. I’m so amped from the Premier League Mornings live show in Orlando Fl at Universal Studios. It was great meeting fans from around the world and cheering on the beautiful game of football. My favorite memory of the day was watching the Leicester City and Brighton match, sweating out Brighton over 1.5 team totals and going nuts when Brighton scored. The beer was flying through the air, and the supporters were locked arm and arm singing their team’s Song. For Sunday’s action, I have a bet from the Leeds United and Brentford match.

Leeds United vs. Brentford (Sunday, 9 a.m. ET)

Three-way Moneyline: Leeds (+140) | Draw (+270) | Brentford (+175)

Bet: Both teams to score and over 2.5 goals (-120)

The best part about betting on goals in a Leeds match is they always push forward regardless of the score. Jesse Marsch’s club will press, press, press until, eventually they turn their opponent over and find the back of the net. This isn’t a recommendation for betting them to win. As much as they love to press, they are equally leaky. Constant pressing often leads to high lines and the pressing team getting caught. It takes discipline to press often and not concede. I’m not entirely too sure Leeds knows how to press and not concede. They only have three clean sheets on the season and have an xGA of 1.69.

Brentford are a formidable opponent who are led by one of the hottest forwards in football, Ivan Toney. Toney has been great, and this attack has been fluid. They are averaging 1.69 goals per match. Even on the road, I’m expecting them to score. The question becomes will they concede? My answer is yes, with the possibility of multiple goals. They are only conceding 1.47 goals per match, but on the road, that average bumps up to 2.00. They only have two clean sheets on the road this season.

Over 2.5 goals is hitting at a 67% clip for Leeds and a 67% clip for Brentford while on the road. I’m hitting this bet as the numbers suggest.