The Premier League season has returned, and so has your chance to cash in big.
The free-to-play Premier League Pick ‘Em contest made its return in the NBC Sports Predictor app along with the new EPL season and continues this week with a new slate of five games.
Each matchday, participants are given five Premier League contests in which they attempt to predict the final score of each fixture. If a player nails all five scores correctly, they can walk away with a cold $50,000 jackpot!
Even if no entry correctly picks the five scores perfectly, there’s still a weekly guarantee of $1,000 in prizes for players with the top overall scores.
Here’s a look at the five matchups selected for this week’s contest, as well as our prediction of the eventual outcome.
Matchup #1 - Brighton & Hove Albion vs. Newcastle United
Analysis: Brighton home matches are always a difficult call to make, mostly due to their expected goal differential output. Despite sitting tied for seventh in home points entering Saturday’s match, the Seagulls have posted the fourth-worst home xGD, per fbref.com. Included in that stat are expected goal losses in three of their last four at the Amex. That said, this feels like a good bounceback opportunity. Newcastle possess the sixth-worst road xGD and have only accumulated 1.7 expected goals in their last four fixtures. Given Brighton are unbeaten this season against bottom-half opposition, I’ll call for them to win all three points on the South Coast.
Prediction: Brighton 2, Newcastle 1
Matchup #2 - Everton vs. Tottenham
Analysis: Despite the sacking of their manager, this Tottenham defense has proved somewhat reliable in recent weeks. In their last two matches - both losses - the Spurs defense allowed above-average metrics in attacking third & penalty area touches. Additionally, the Tottenham backline hasn’t allowed more than 168 attacking third touches (their season-long average) since Matchday Five. If Antonio Conte is able to get this offense to perform slightly above average, they should be able to exploit this Everton side that has lost three straight on expected goals. Plus, Conte was unbeaten against Everton in his last EPL post, so I’ll call for a low-scoring win for the visitors.
Prediction: Tottenham 2, Everton 0
Match #3 - Arsenal vs. Watford
Analysis: Arsenal have been a night and day team at home vs. on the road, but this match comes in their preferred venue. Since losing at the Emirates to Chelsea, the Gunners have reeled off a four-match unbeaten run, winning three of those matches on expected goals. The bonus? All three of those xG wins came against teams in the bottom half of the table, where Watford currently sit. It’s also been a rough history for Watford at Arsenal. In their last seven head-to-head meetings at the Emirates, Arsenal have won six, including three straight. However, given Arsenal have only kept one clean sheet at home this season, I at least expect Watford will get on the scoreboard. That said, go for the favorites here.
Prediction: Arsenal 3, Watford 1
Match #4 - Leeds United vs. Leicester City
Analysis: The winner of this match is a tough call, but I believe it’s easier to predict goals at Elland Road. Leicester, in their last six EPL fixtures, have accumulated nearly 12 expected goals and never fewer than 1.5 xGF in any one of those matches. Additionally, Leeds have generated at least 1.0 xGF in all five home fixtures this season. At the same time, these defenses have been very poor. Leeds have only conceded eight times on 9.3 xGA at home, while Leicester have yet to keep a road clean sheet AND haven’t held opponents under 1.0 xGF. Wrap all those stats together and I believe we’re headed to these sides sharing the points in a high-scoring contest.
Prediction: Leeds United 2, Leicester City 2
Match #5 - West Ham United vs. Liverpool
Analysis: Much like Leeds-Leicester, I expect goals in this match. Both sides currently rank in the top-four in goals for and expected goals and have combined to see 75 percent of their matches finish over 2.5 goals. Add in that both sides had midweek matches that could lead to some tired legs, and players should be surprised if there are two or fewer goals at the London Stadium. Side-wise, though, I give the slightest of edges to Liverpool. The Reds have the best road xGD in the league and have won every road fixture on expected goals. Plus, in those five fixtures, Jurgen Klopp’s side have registered two or more expected goals, while West Ham have only surpassed that number once at home. Expect West Ham to score a handful, but for Liverpool to be markedly better.
Prediction: Liverpool 4, West Ham 2
