The Premier League season has returned, and so has your chance to cash in big.
The free-to-play Premier League Pick ‘Em contest made its return in the NBC Sports Predictor app along with the new EPL season and continues this week with a new slate of five games.
Each matchday, participants are given five Premier League contests in which they attempt to predict the final score of each fixture. If a player nails all five scores correctly, they can walk away with a cold $50,000 jackpot!
Even if no entry correctly picks the five scores perfectly, there’s still a weekly guarantee of $1,000 in prizes for players with the top overall scores.
Here’s a look at the five matchups selected for this week’s contest, as well as our prediction of the eventual outcome.
Matchup #1 - Manchester United vs. Crystal Palace
Analysis: For some reason, this Palace defense can’t seem to get it together on the road. For the season, Palace rank fourth in expected goals against and fifth in shot-creating actions against, per fbref.com. But, the Eagles have turned in below-average shot-creating and expected goals against numbers in all seven road fixtures to date. Meanwhile, United rank fifth in expected goals and shot-creating actions after turning in a great performance Thursday against Arsenal. And even though Palace are unbeaten (2W-1D) in their last three visits to Old Trafford, United have won the expected goal battle in three of the last four. Until Palace show they’re capable of performing up to par on the road, I have no choice but to back United.
Prediction: Manchester United 2, Crystal Palace 1
Matchup #2 - Leeds United vs. Brentford
Analysis: For Brentford, this match will come down to whether they can improve on their poor record against pressure. The Bees are the fourth-worst side in the Premier League in terms of successful pressure percentage allowed, while Leeds are second-best at successfully applying pressure. For that reason, I believe there’s at least one goal in this for Leeds, who are unbeaten in their last five against Brentford dating back to their Championship days. Leeds are also playing much better defensively as of late, allowing above-average shots on target against in four straight home fixtures and three straight overall. Although they’ll likely still play without Luke Ayling and Patrick Bamford, Leeds look like a good play to bag all three points.
Prediction: Leeds 2, Brentford 1
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Match #3 - Tottenham Hotspur vs. Norwich City
Analysis: I’m not sure how much weight to place on Tottenham’s midweek victory against Brentford, a side that is trending in the wrong direction. That said, Tottenham’s offense has looked solid in the last few weeks, generating two expected goals or more in their last two home fixtures. Against a Norwich defense that has experienced good luck in their last two road fixtures - two goals against on 3.4 expected goals against - I’m confident Spurs put at least two past the Canaries. However, this Norwich offense has looked better as of late, notching one expected goal in three of their last four matches. Spurs should take care of business, but I’ll back the Canaries to get on the scoreboard too.
Prediction: Tottenham 2, Norwich 1
Match #4 - Aston Villa vs. Leicester City
Analysis: If you’ve been able to get a read on Leicester this season, go buy a lottery ticket. They’ve lost four straight on expected goals, but have picked up at least a point in three of those fixtures. That said, they’re still generating chances offensively - seven goals on 5.2 expected in their last four - something that cannot be said about the Villa attack. Across their last five fixtures, Villa have never surpassed one expected goal. However, they’ve simultaneously allowed under one expected goal in all of their last four EPL fixtures. Plus, I expect Villa’s strength in set pieces will catch out a Leicester defense that is poor in that arena. For those reasons, I expect you’ll see these sides share the points at Villa Park.
Prediction: Aston Villa 2, Leicester City 2
Match #5 - Everton vs. Arsenal
Analysis: This, for me, is the toughest call across the board. Everton have been awful as of late, but I have Arsenal power-rated as the second-worst road team in the league. Plus, Everton should have an advantage when it comes to Arsenal’s poor ability to defend crosses. The Toffees rank second in crosses completed into the 18-yard box, while Arsenal are 16th in crosses allowed into their box. Everton are simultaneously due for some positive home regression as well. They currently sit on a -7 home goal differential, but their expected goal differential at Goodison Park is -1.9. While I don’t think they’ll win the match outright, I trust Everton will find some form and scratch out a point against an Arsenal side that leads the league in road expected goals against.
Prediction: Everton 1, Arsenal 1
