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Last weekend was one to forget, with all of my side bets failing to cash.
Chelsea imploded against Brentford in a 4-1 defeat at Stamford Bridge. Arsenal let their grip on 4th place slip with a lackluster display at Selhurst Park that ended in a 3-0 loss.
It’s a new Matchday, and I have two plays for this weekend’s Premier League (PL) action. All stats are taken from FBREF.com, and odds are taken from Pointsbet and reflective at the time of writing.
Everton vs. Manchester United (Saturday, 7:30 AM EST, Live on USA)
Both clubs are struggling for form and feeling the pressure at different ends of the table.
Everton are at risk of being relegated from the PL for the first time in their history. The financial impact of dropping down to the Championship could take years to recover from, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the board made another managerial change very soon.
Frank Lampard has no experience fighting for survival and has inspired this group of players to just six points in his nine PL matches.
That has left them one point above the drop, and Wednesday’s crushing 3-2 defeat against Burnley could be difficult to recover from. The Toffees were 2-1 up at halftime and had chances to extend their lead. Confidence is low, and the situation at Goodison Park is getting very desperate.
This weekend’s opponents Manchester United are fading out of the Top 4 Race with a whimper and will likely play their European football on Thursday nights next season. Despite their recent troubles, I think United have enough individual quality in their squad to beat Everton by two or three goals.
In 11 games this season against the current bottom seven sides United have a record of 6W-4D-1L, scoring 24 goals and conceding 13. Five of those victories were by two goals or more, making Manchester United -1 +215 in the Handicap with Tie market a very tempting play.
Last week’s 0-3 betting record has made me cautious, and I’m going to play it safe and take United’s Moneyline at -130.
Betting Tip: Manchester United Moneyline -130
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Norwich City vs. Burnley (Sunday, 9 AM EST, Live on USA)
Burnley faces bottom-side Norwich City, who avoided defeat last weekend for the first time in seven games.
It was more to do with Brighton’s poor finishing than The Canaries’ resolute defending. The Seagulls saw 63% of the ball, racked up 31 attempts on goal, and generated 2.8 xG, but somehow the scoreline remained 0-0.
Burnley also avoided defeat for the first time in five games midweek when they produced a spirited second-half comeback to beat Everton 3-2. The three points and manner of the victory will give everyone at the club a huge lift coming into this relegation six-pointer with Norwich.
Sean Dyche has maintained their PL status by beating the sides around them and finishing the season strong making Burnley’s Moneyline +155 very attractive. Looking at their record, a share of the spoils is a real possibility.
They’re the second-lowest goalscorers in the Premier League with 25, have only won four times this season, and one of those was on the road and drawn 12 games, one of the highest numbers in the league.
I’m backing Burnley to win with insurance by taking them in the Draw No Bet market at -125.
Betting Tip: Burnley Draw no Bet -125
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